Winter Weather 2021-2022 Discussion

[Mike S]

For @brianc33710 because we are here to serve!

 

[brianc33710]

OK cool, or maybe cold is more appropriate lol. Thanks!

 

[brianc33710]

OK, copied & pasted from AmericanWX instead of retyped:

My concerns are for a December 1984-January 1985 type setup this winter. I emailed James Spann about the similarities about 2 weeks ago. He messaged back saying this could be worth watching. Within the last week he posted something about our Dec 84-Jan 85 similarities, I think that was La Niña as well, in response to a complaint "winters aren't cold anymore." Spann clearly said he didn't predict/guarantee/forecast a Jan 85 killing freeze would happen but said to keep things in mind that we could go from very warm to frigid cold in a matter of weeks.

I hope I'm wrong & worried for no reason. In fact I thought things had "warmed" enough so that we wouldn't fall below 5F/-15C ever again. We haven't seen this widespread in Cen AL since Feb 96 & they used to more frequently than now. But TX last February proved that "impossibility" wrong. Yes I remember Christmas & December 1984 were just that warm, not quite as warm as 2021 but still way above average. In fact our 77F/25C 29 Dec broke the Dec 84 of 75F/24C. Unfortunately January 1985 featured the coldest temps Birmingham had seen since the 1940s.

***Also, the official Birmingham reporting station in January 1940 recorded a +1F/-17C low but the airport where official readings now originate dropped to -10F/-23C. So while our -6F/-21C temp January 1985 temp was the lowest "official" reading since February 1899, I'll go with the airport -10F/-23C reading from the airport in January 1940 as the better gauge over the records on file.***

I conversed with another member on here who didnt see as many similarities but I figured Id add this for discussion anyway.

 

[Mike S]

Their are outliers then there is the NAM.

 

[maroonedinhsv]

Their are outliers then there is the NAM.

In retrospect...

 

[ghost]

Is that scrambled or poached on Brandon's face?

 

[akt1985]

Looks like we might have another winter weather threat Thursday for Tennessee, Kentucky and maybe north Alabama.

 

[Mike S]

In retrospect...

yep been thinking about that

 

[Weatherphreak]

Their are outliers then there is the NAM.

What’s the NAM show Thursday. Ha

 

[JPWX]

I have a feeling we're gonna see another threat of snow across the Mid-South/Southeast before January ends. The pattern going forward would support it.

 

[MattW]

So is everyone just ignoring the large snowstorm forecasted for this weekend? Been consistent for four model runs now.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

So is everyone just ignoring the large snowstorm forecasted for this weekend? Been consistent for four model runs now.

No, it has already been said the pattern favored another winter storm and that’s why these block buster runs have recently started to show in the modeling, but at 6 days out, plenty of inconsistencies, and no goes in the ensembles —there’s still a lot to be determined about the eventual outcome.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

12z GFS continues to advertise a bounce house with the energy and is not showing consistency. That big snow swath for those areas on the 6z run is gone.

 

[Weatherphreak]

The mountains of North Georgia and North Carolina looked to be the big winners on the last GFS run I saw. I'm trying to hike Brasstown Bald this weekend so I'd be happy with a little mountain top snow but keep the roads clear. Alabama looks to maybe get a trace to half an inch in the far northern areas if this run panned out.

 

[Argus]

The Euro is now projecting a possible major icing event for northeast Georgia.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

12z GFS continues to advertise a bounce house with the energy and is not showing consistency. That big snow swath for those areas on the 6z run is gone.

Northwest trend continues. GFS says little to no snow for you, Matt. Sorry.

 

[Richardjacks]

Alabama's snow chances seem to be fading fast, unless something changes here soon. The surface low is too far west and north.

 

[Blizzard1]

Alabama's snow chances seem to be fading fast, unless something changes here soon. The surface low is too far west and north.

Well boo! I should probably start a thread again since my last one cashed in like a champ. It did seem like we were teetering on the edge at best with this one though, at least in the Bham area.

 

[Richardjacks]

Well the 0z nam is trying to throw us a bone tonight. Surface low tracks further south than what gfs is showing. Will see if it holds...

 

[Richardjacks]

Well the 0z nam is trying to throw us a bone tonight. Surface low tracks further south than what gfs is showing. Will see if it holds...

And now the gfs as well....if this keeps up,, will need to start thinking about accumulations for much of North Alabama, probably near I 20 and points northward....but the dry slot will be a limiting factor