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Winter WX Winter Storm Threat 3/11-3/13 2017

stormcentral

stormcentral

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Chattanooga, TN
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Several of the weather models are now developing a winter storm late weekend possibly impacting KY, TN, N AL/GA, NC.

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FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN EASTERN TENNESSEE ;

Forecast confidence is below average for much of the extended period with differences between forecast models and even individual runs of models. A cold front will swing through Thursday night/early Friday, bringing the chance for some showers for mainly the first half of Friday. Colder air will move in behind the front, then models show an upper trough swinging across the area and a weak surface low moving by to our south late Saturday through early Sunday. While the system may initially start out as rain, thermal profiles suggest a quick changeover to snow after sunset Saturday night. Accumulating snow will be possible, especially north of I-40 and in the mountains. Areas south of I-40 may see some accumulating snow, but confidence is much too low at this point to indicate anything more than a rain/snow mix. It appears that the last few runs of the GFS and ECMWF have trended cooler, indicating a better potential for snow in our forecast area, but there`s still plenty of time for finer details to change. Keep in mind, this event is still 4 days out, and the energy for this system is still out over the Pacific Ocean where observing equipment for model initial conditions is sparse. Details remain uncertain. Will continue the mention of possible snow in the HWO. System moves well east of our forecast area by late Sunday, and Monday looks dry. The main story for next week will be cooler temperatures, especially overnight, with hard freezes possible for a couple nights in a row. Another front with limited moisture is forecast to push through Monday night into Tuesday, and temperatures will remain cold enough overnight for some flakes to mix in at higher elevations.


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This has some serious potential for WNC. Didn't think I'd actually have a shot at even 50% of average this year, much less any higher.

Currently sitting at 12" total on the season with a seasonal average of 31".
 
A notable downtrend in snowfall accumulations on the latest runs of the global models. It appears the shortwave diving out of the Plains doesn't amplify as much....
 
A major southern snowstorm during March in a La Nina year would be quite unusual. Most late season (March/ early April) snow events here in metro Atlanta have historically occurred during El Nino's (April 3, 1987; March 24, 1983; March 2-3, 1980, etc) or neutral winters (March 13, 1993; March 1960.; etc).

Typically La Nina winters feature significant March/ April tornadoes in Georgia (March 24, 1975; April 3, 1974; March 28, 1984; March 5 and April 4, 1989; April 27, 2011, etc).
 
PerryW said:
A major southern snowstorm during March in a La Nina year would be quite unusual. Most late season (March/ early April) snow events here in metro Atlanta have historically occurred during El Nino's (April 3, 1987; March 24, 1983; March 2-3, 1980, etc) or neutral winters (March 13, 1993; March 1960.; etc).

Typically La Nina winters feature significant March/ April tornadoes in Georgia (March 24, 1975; April 3, 1974; March 28, 1984; March 5 and April 4, 1989; April 27, 2011, etc).
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I wouldn't consider this upcoming event major (although any time the south gets even a dusting is notable). Unusually warm ground and rather marginal surface temps will likely preclude major accumulations (if any) outside higher elevations.

Now the arctic blast will be unusual but should be short lived (4/5 days).
 
Kory said:
I wouldn't consider this upcoming event major (although any time the south gets even a dusting is notable). Unusually warm ground and rather marginal surface temps will likely preclude major accumulations (if any) outside higher elevations.

Now the arctic blast will be unusual but should be short lived (4/5 days).
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Yeah I am not looking forward to the cold blast next week. But like you said, it looks fairly transient and a more zonal flow with moderating temps looks probable from next weekend onward.
 
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