Volcano thread

[bjdeming]

This is a satellite view of the 4:45 a.m. Saturday paroxysm; there was another paroxysm about four hours later, with a low-level emission in between. Am not sure of which paroxysm it was, but probably Friday's big one -- these time zones and the international news delay have worn me down; I'm taking a break! (Think there has been another low-level eruption since the paroxysm around 8:50 Saturday morning local time, to ~2000 m, but waiting for confirmation.)

 

[bjdeming]

It helped that Lewotobi apparently calmed down a bit -- on returning from the break, I see no new updates from PVMBG or Darwin VAAC.

This Kompas story (Indonesian), from about an hour ago, confirms the 9-km radius Saturday and also sums up the recent notable eruptions.

Checked the map too: it's on a very narrow strip on the eastern island tip. Hilly, too. If more distance away from the volcano were needed, perhaps people could go west or maybe take a short boat trip eastward to other islands?

 

[bjdeming]

Overnight (Pacific time), PVMBG posted seven reports of new Lewotobi eruptions. Five of them were fairly low-level, but the last two (in the past three hours, including one an hour ago) have been powerful and there is a VAAC advisory currently in place reporting ash to 52,000 feet.

The satellite views shows a messy but dense ash footprint from such repetitive activity (and on the ground, road travel is severely impacted and an airport is closed per media reports on X):



I see no other big news, and despite the trouble it's causing, we do finally get a pretty picture of the eruption; it's the current one and local time right now is a little after 2300.



As one person put it on X, Lewotobi just keeps erupting -- but it doesn't appear to be escalating in intensity, at least at the moment. Seems to this layperson that this is good news, but we'll see how it goes.

 

[bjdeming]

This Kompas video, uploaded nine hours ago, shows views of Saturday's big ones, which the narrator says appeared to be bigger than Friday's (YouTube autotranslation). The evacuation scenes are from Friday, after the evac zone was extended to 8 km.

 

[bjdeming]

No new eruptions have been noted, per the current Darwin VAAC advisory (there still is plenty of ash in the air).

I found this satellite image for one of today's earlier eruptions -- it was a pretty image but an ashy event!

 

[bjdeming]

I'm starting to feel hopeful even though there are 9 reports from PVMBG on X about eruptions since 7:53 a.m. local time on the 10th -- these aren't so violent as the recent ones and the pattern is beginning to resemble the pre-November 3 one. Time will tell, but the worst of this episode might be over in terms of eruption activity.

Per Kompas-TV (Indonesian) via browser translation, "Currently, Mount Lewotobi Laki-laki is at Level IV or alert status.

"With these conditions, authorities have appealed to the public not to carry out activities within a seven-kilometer radius of the eruption center, as well as a nine-kilometer sector from the southwest to the northwest to avoid possible risks."

Darwin VAAC's current advisory reports ash to 30,000 feet with continuous emissions to 20,000 feet, and I've just got to share this tweet:

 

[bjdeming]

We might not be seeing many more stories of towering ash columns. Plumes are lower, per both PVMBG and Darwin VAAC, and yesterday Lewotobi, while still having frequent pops, also got into the lava business big time:



Lava flows earlier this year were much stickier and shorter. It must be a new, and fairly sizable batch of hotter, more primitive magma that likely now has blown off most of its original gas load (layperson opinion only).

Kompas reports the flows are advancing on some evacuated villages in the 7-km radius. The exclusion zone is out to 12 km now and more than 12,000 people are displaced.

Indonesia's navy is assisting SAR workers.

The official toll now reportedly is 9 dead and 3 injured, all from the November 3rd bombardment.

 

[bjdeming]

Welp, I was wrong about no more "towering column of ash" stories. Despite having two ongoing lava flows out to about 4 km each, Lewotobi also got explosive again on the 12th, starting around midday, per both PVMBG and the following new Kompas video via YouTube autotranslation:



Darwin VAAC's current advisory reports ash to 15,000 and 30,000 feet, with ongoing emissions to 15,000 feet. About an hour ago the announcement came on X that all flights to and from Bali are grounded because of ash.

The president of Indonesia is in the US on a state visit but he tweeted a little while ago that he has consulted with various Indonesian agencies on the emergency response and wants updates. The nation's VP has also been meeting with the relevant groups, per news reports.

This is a very complex eruption. I don't know what data the boffins, inside and out of the country, are looking at, of course, but it can't be very reassuring if the president interrupts a state visit to consult local disaster experts and to request continuous updates.

As far as I can tell, no property or village has been affected by the lava yet, and there are still about 12,000 refugees, some of whom apparently are now being moved farther away on Flores Island.

 

[bjdeming]

Yesterday, with the uptick in activity, apparently the observation post crew evacuated. I haven't seen PVMBG reports on Lewotobi today on X, although they are posting on other erupting volcanoes (Ibu and the very dangerous Semeru, mostly).

From other sources on X, Lewotobi Laki-Laki has been in continuous eruption since Tuesday night local time (they're 16 hours ahead of me here on Pacific time at the moment), and Darwin VAAC still reports constant emissions to 11,000 feet.

I think there has been a wind shift to the south -- Bali flights were stopped but a few tweets today indicate that air traffic is resuming.

In earlier news, the GVP update just went up:

Most Recent Weekly Report: 6 November-12 November 2024Cite this Report​

The Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) reported that eruptive activity at Lewotobi Laki-laki remained at a high-level during 5-12 November, producing tall ash plumes, explosions, pyroclastic flows, and a lava flow, which all significantly affected residents, infrastructure, and transportation. The Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported that as of 5 November there were 2,472 people spread across three evacuation shelters. A total of nine people had died (six from one family according to a news article) from the eruptive events that occurred during 3-4 November, 63 were injured, and five people remained in the hospital, one was critically injured. Information about damage to homes and infrastructure was incomplete because the exclusion zone and ongoing eruption prevented evaluations.

During 5-6 November dense gray ash plumes rose as high as 1 km above the summit and drifted SW, W, and NW. A webcam image from 1858 on 6 November showed incandescent material descending one of the flanks.

Another webcam image from 0244 on 7 November showed incandescent material being ejected above the summit and descending the flanks. Dense gray ash plumes during the early morning hours of the 7th rose as high as 2.5 km above the summit and drifted SW and W. At 0853 a dense gray ash plume rose 2.5 km above the summit and drifted SW. According to a news report the event was accompanied by a banging noise and pyroclastic flows that descended the NW flank about 1 km. PVMBG noted that during 1010-1200 dense ash plumes that were gray or gray and brown in color rose as high as 8 km above the summit and drifted SW. A news source reported that pyroclastic flows descended the NNE flank 3-4 km, and abundant amounts of ash fell from the plume onto the flanks and in areas downwind. Activities were prohibited within a radius of 7 km from the center of Laki-laki with restrictions expanding to 8 km on the SW and NW flanks later that afternoon. During 7-8 November the Darwin VAAC reported that some of the ash plumes rose as high as 16.8 km (55,000 ft) a.s.l. based on satellite data.

PVMBG and BNPB reported that several large explosive eruptions were recorded during 8-9 November, and BNPB noted that about 1,049 additional people evacuated from seven villages. At 0125 on 8 November an ash cloud rose 5 km above the summit and pyroclastic flows traveled as far as 3 km down the NE flank. Eruptive events at 0748, 1023, 1044, and 1314 generated ash plumes that rose 1-2.5 km above the summit. An explosive eruption at 1355 generated a dense ash plume that rose as high as 10 km and drifted SW, W, and NW. Pyroclastic flows descended the flanks in all directions and ash fell in areas downwind. According to a news report several “bangs” were heard by residents in Pululera Village (8 km NW), Wulanggitang. They observed dark black clouds accompanied by thunderstorms and occasional lightning; ash fell in the village 15-20 minutes after hearing the bangs. The hazard exclusion zone was expanded to an 8-km radius around both the Laki-laki and Perempuan craters and access to roads connecting East Flores and Sikka Regency was restricted. Authorities urged residents to go to centralized evacuation points in Wulanggitang and Larantuka Districts in the East Flores Regency, and in Maumere City (63 km WSW) in the Sikka Regency.

At 0447 on 9 November a dense, gray-brown ash plume rose 9 km above the summit and drifted SW, W, and NW. Rumbling sounds were reported. According to the Darwin VAAC the ash plumes rose as high as 15.2 km (50,000 ft) a.s.l. based on satellite data. Pyroclastic flows descended the NW flanks as far as 2 km. Intense incandescence emanating above the summit and avalanches of incandescent lava descended multiple flanks. Eruptive events at 0716, 0850, 1123, 1233, 1253, 1508, 1640, 1815, and 1942 on 9 November generated ash plumes that rose as high as 6 km above the summit. The VAAC reported that at 0850 and 0920 ash plumes rose as high as 15.8 km (52,000 ft) a.s.l. and drifted W.

During 0600-1200 on 9 November the hazard exclusion zone was expanded to 9 km on the SW, W, and NW flanks of Laki-laki. Additional evacuation centers opened in SDK Eputobi (16 km NNE) in the Titehena District. Community members were assisting in food preparation, health workers offered care and psychological support to families, teachers were providing lessons to students, and surrounding communities helped with sanitation needs. By 2000 on 9 November a total of 11,445 residents had evacuated. The Komodo Labuan Bajo Airport (317 km W) was closed during 9-10 November and at least 30 flights were cancelled. Ships were sent to transport people to areas with open airports.

According to a news report an eruption occurred early in the morning on 10 November; a photo showed streams on incandescent material covering the upper flanks. A webcam image captured at 1814 showed a possible lava flow on the upper W or NW flank. BNPB reported that on 10 November two evacuation posts, in Hikong and Kringa (12-15 km from the summit), that were being affected by ashfall were moved to East Flores. Ash plumes rose 1-6 km above the summit and drifted SW, W, NW, and N.

On 11 November airports that remained closed because of ashfall included the Komodo International Airport, the Francis Airport Xaverius Seda (60 km W), the H. Hasan Aroeboesman Airport (126 km WSW), the Soa Airport (190 km W), and Frans Xavier Seda Airport (252 km W). Ash plumes continued to be produced, rising 0.5-2.5 km above the summit and drifting SW, W, and NW. A webcam image at 2006 showed incandescent material being ejected above the summit, and advancement of the lava flow on the NW flank.

Ash plumes on 12 November rose as high as 9 km above the summit and drifted SW, W, and NW. Webcam images from 0406 and 0527 showed the advancing lava flow and a dark plume rising from possibly the end of the flow. A news report noted on 12 November that preliminary estimates suggested that around 2,700 housing units needed to be built for evacuees to be relocated. The H. Hasan Aroeboesman Airport, Gewayantana Airport (38 km NE), Frans Xavier Seda Airport, and Soa Airport in Bajawa among others remained closed. According to a news report about 84 flights in and out of Bali’s Gusti Ngurah Rai international airport (835 km W) were affected during the previous few days and on 13 November 90 international and domestic flights were cancelled. BNPB reported that by 13 November a total of 13,116 people were in evacuation shelters across eight locations...

Metro TV reports that the single lava flow branched in two, with each subflow about 4 km, plus or minus, from the summit. I don't know if any villages have been reached.

Kompas reported yesterday that refugees are having acute respiratory illness when masks aren't available or aren't worn (eruption management tip: ash looks fluffy but is little fragments of glass and crystalline rock and it can mess up unprotected eyes and the respiratory tract).

They also note that the main highway on Flores, used by eight districts, is closed (ash is rough on engines and makes roads slippery).

 

[bjdeming]

Not just ash emissions (but this is nowhere near like Pinatubo 1991).

 

[bjdeming]

Lewotobi about six hours ago (this account has other visuals, too -- night ones clearly show the lava flow incandescence):



I'm gonna move to the tropics -- it's nice to see bright sunshine at 5:30 a.m. on a November morning.

 

[bjdeming]

Lewotobi update: They moved the Aviation Code down to Orange on the 14th, although the volcano alert stays at the highest level, and news stories have shifted over to the refugee crisis. Darwin VAAC continues to report ongoing emissions.

This is closer to the level of activity Lewotobi had before November 3. However, Indonesia reportedly is planning to permanently resettle thousands of people.

 

[bjdeming]

The USGS just posted a Mount Adams update on Facebook (and probably elsewhere, too, of course).

No changes noted, but Adams does need to be watched and community awareness is encouraged.

That's one big difference between volcanic unrest and severe weather emergency management: keeping civil authorities and the public engaged over the longer time it takes for eruptions and other hazards to appear (sometimes long enough so that several different sets of civil authorites are in office!).