seasonsofweather
Member
Looking like potential severe outbreak this upcoming week.
Discussion SPC:
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 040757
SPC AC 040757
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 AM CDT Sat May 04 2019
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Large-scale pattern will become seasonally favorable for organized
severe during the upcoming medium-range period. Severe
thunderstorms, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes
are expected across a substantial portion of the CONUS during the
day4-6 time frame.
Latest model guidance continues to suggest a pronounced upper trough
will eject across the lower CO River Valley into the southern
Rockies during the day4 period...central/southern Plains day5...and
Midwest day6. Southern extent of dominant surface anticyclone should
stall across KS and an extensive moist warm sector is expected to
eventually materialize across the southern Plains/lower MS Valley
into MO ahead of this ejecting short wave. While it seems likely
that organized severe will spread from TX to the Midwest ahead of
this feature, it's not entirely clear of the convective evolution
each day. Day3 TX short wave will likely induce a substantial amount
of precipitation that could/should disrupt northward advance of
highest PW air mass to higher latitudes. Initially, most robust
convection will be confined to the High Plains where steep lapse
rates will contribute greatly to buoyancy. If the short wave timing
is accurate, a more substantial severe event could unfold day5
across the Plains. GFS/Canadian are more aggressive with surface low
development across KS than the ECMWF which is weaker with the
surface low Wednesday. Mid-level speed max will eject into the
Midwest Thursday along with an attendant severe threat.
..Darrow.. 05/04/2019
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
Discussion SPC:
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 040757
SPC AC 040757
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 AM CDT Sat May 04 2019
Valid 071200Z - 121200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Large-scale pattern will become seasonally favorable for organized
severe during the upcoming medium-range period. Severe
thunderstorms, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes
are expected across a substantial portion of the CONUS during the
day4-6 time frame.
Latest model guidance continues to suggest a pronounced upper trough
will eject across the lower CO River Valley into the southern
Rockies during the day4 period...central/southern Plains day5...and
Midwest day6. Southern extent of dominant surface anticyclone should
stall across KS and an extensive moist warm sector is expected to
eventually materialize across the southern Plains/lower MS Valley
into MO ahead of this ejecting short wave. While it seems likely
that organized severe will spread from TX to the Midwest ahead of
this feature, it's not entirely clear of the convective evolution
each day. Day3 TX short wave will likely induce a substantial amount
of precipitation that could/should disrupt northward advance of
highest PW air mass to higher latitudes. Initially, most robust
convection will be confined to the High Plains where steep lapse
rates will contribute greatly to buoyancy. If the short wave timing
is accurate, a more substantial severe event could unfold day5
across the Plains. GFS/Canadian are more aggressive with surface low
development across KS than the ECMWF which is weaker with the
surface low Wednesday. Mid-level speed max will eject into the
Midwest Thursday along with an attendant severe threat.
..Darrow.. 05/04/2019
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
