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Severe WX Tuesday-Thursday May 7-9th Severe Threat (1 Viewer)


Messages
34
Location
Plainfield, Illinois
Looking like potential severe outbreak this upcoming week.

Discussion SPC:
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 040757
SPC AC 040757

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 AM CDT Sat May 04 2019

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Large-scale pattern will become seasonally favorable for organized
severe during the upcoming medium-range period. Severe
thunderstorms, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes
are expected across a substantial portion of the CONUS during the
day4-6 time frame.

Latest model guidance continues to suggest a pronounced upper trough
will eject across the lower CO River Valley into the southern
Rockies during the day4 period...central/southern Plains day5...and
Midwest day6. Southern extent of dominant surface anticyclone should
stall across KS and an extensive moist warm sector is expected to
eventually materialize across the southern Plains/lower MS Valley
into MO ahead of this ejecting short wave. While it seems likely
that organized severe will spread from TX to the Midwest ahead of
this feature, it's not entirely clear of the convective evolution
each day. Day3 TX short wave will likely induce a substantial amount
of precipitation that could/should disrupt northward advance of
highest PW air mass to higher latitudes. Initially, most robust
convection will be confined to the High Plains where steep lapse
rates will contribute greatly to buoyancy. If the short wave timing
is accurate, a more substantial severe event could unfold day5
across the Plains. GFS/Canadian are more aggressive with surface low
development across KS than the ECMWF which is weaker with the
surface low Wednesday. Mid-level speed max will eject into the
Midwest Thursday along with an attendant severe threat.

..Darrow.. 05/04/2019

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

59C38A5C-443A-49CF-A84D-6C083E99D122.gif
 

MichelleH

Member
Messages
287
Location
Hanceville, AL
So, is this supposed to affect Alabama and Tennessee on Thursday or Friday? (Sorry, not enough coffee yet.) I'm asking because my family and I finally got to go to Gatlinburg (got here yesterday) and we are supposed to go back home Friday. Thanks to whoever answers!
 
So, is this supposed to affect Alabama and Tennessee on Thursday or Friday? (Sorry, not enough coffee yet.) I'm asking because my family and I finally got to go to Gatlinburg (got here yesterday) and we are supposed to go back home Friday. Thanks to whoever answers!
BMX says they have "no confidence" in a severe weather threat Thursday due to the lack of dynamics in the area. They also do not have any risk for severe weather in their Hazardous Weather Outlook for Thursday.
 

TornadoFan

Member
Messages
405
Location
Colorado
Risk upgrade possible for Wednesday.

Cap removal should be sufficient for robust
supercell development by 20-21z across western/southwestern OK.
Initial activity will develop along the front then develop south
along the dryline into portions of central TX. Forecast soundings
strongly support supercells with SBCAPE expected to approach 4000
J/kg along the I-35 corridor. Intense updrafts will likely support
very large hail (in excess of 2") and strong vertical shear suggests
tornadoes are possible. Will introduce an Enhanced Risk for this
scenario, but severe probs may need to be increased in later
outlooks if an uncontaminated warm sector ultimately materializes
ahead of the trough.
 

warneagle

Member
Messages
1,528
Location
Silver Spring, MD
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer
Hail-driven upgrade to ENH in part of Kansas. Still only 5% tornado probs but maybe something will get going along the warm front.
 

TornadoFan

Member
Messages
405
Location
Colorado
NWS in Wichita is pointing out the possibility of a few strong tornadoes today. Not sure where they're getting that from.
 

warneagle

Member
Messages
1,528
Location
Silver Spring, MD
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer
Yeah I'm surprised they went that far. I could definitely see some strong tornadoes happening tomorrow and Wednesday but it doesn't look that impressive today. Looks like the main tornado threat is relatively confined to the warm frontal zone.
 

warneagle

Member
Messages
1,528
Location
Silver Spring, MD
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but the CAMs are all over the place in terms of storm mode (or at least initial storm mode).
 

Lori

Administrator
Staff member
Administrator
Moderator
Messages
678
Location
Pelham, AL
Special Affiliations
SKYWARN® Volunteer
When I see Pampa, TX, I always think of this tornado that hit an industrial area...(June 8, 1995)

8137FC39-E6ED-497C-A615-8CAFF9460F24.jpeg
 

TornadoFan

Member
Messages
405
Location
Colorado
From the AFD by the NWS in Amarillo:

Of greater concern will be scattered supercells set to initiate
sometime between 3-5 PM east of a developing dryline which is
cutting through Tucumcari and Clovis. These supercells will exist
in an environment characterized by MLCAPE values nearing 3000 J/kg
and effective shear values of 40-50 kts by late afternoon. Backing
winds just SE of the sfc boundary will result in a zone of enhanced
tornado potential along US 60 from the Canyon/Amarillo area to the
Borger/Pampa area this afternoon. Just on the cool side of the
front, an area of strong baroclinically generated horizontal
vorticity exists right now but is likely somewhat unavailable to
storms as convection remains elevated early this afternoon. However,
this vorticity will become available for streamwise ingestion into
any storms that ride the boundary later this afternoon as bndry
layer modification should be sufficient to meet the classic
conceptual model of "boundaries that produce tornadoes." Both sides
of this boundary will be watched like a hawk through the afternoon.
 

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