Tropical Storm Sara discussion thread

[Atlantic]

Invest 99L was designated around 1:30 PM EST today. Models are thinking if it misses the trough, it may lift up towards Florida as the high pressure ridge moves away.

 

[Clancy]

Bubbling south of Jamaica.

 

[slenker]

18z GFS has it develop into a 922 mb monster south of Cuba before it makes a move towards Florida.

 

[warneagle]

18z GFS has it develop into a 922 mb monster south of Cuba before it makes a move towards Florida.

happy hour GFS must be hitting the sauce extra hard today

 

[JBishopwx]

GFS this (Tuesday) evening has Sara going bonkers bout time Sunday runs around.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

happy hour GFS must be hitting the sauce extra hard today

GFS has been very consistent with this across all runs for at least the last 36 hours; most GEFS members support as well. Euro also on board with potentially intense development.

Strong consensus this will at the very least be the system to push the season (possibly rather deep) into official hyperactive territory.

 

[Atlantic]

Aircraft recon expected to check this out today

000
NOUS42 KNHC 121803
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0105 PM EST TUE 12 NOVEMBER 2024
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z NOVEMBER 2024
TCPOD NUMBER.....24-165

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 13/1900Z A. 14/1130Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST B. AFXXX 0219A CYCLONE
C. 13/1500Z C. 14/0800Z
D. 16.5N 77.5W D. 16.8N 80.8W
E. 13/1830Z TO 13/2200Z E. 14/1100Z TO 14/1430Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. LOW-LEVEL INVEST G. FIX
H. NO WRA ACTIVATION H. NO WRA ACTIVATION

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.
B. POSSIBLE NOAA 42 P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSION INTO THE
SUSPECT AREA FOR 15/1200Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 15/0800Z.
C. POSSIBLE NOAA 49 G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND
THE SUSPECT AREA FOR 15/1200Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 15/0530Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

NOTE: THE ATLANTIC WINTER SEASON REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE.
THE PACIFIC WINTER SEASON REQUIREMENTS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF WC-130J AIRCRAFT MAY FLY AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE
16/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.

 

[JBishopwx]

 

[JPWX]

If anyone wants my thoughts, please directly message me from now on. I won't be posting as much on here at least for a while unless someone tags me.

 

[Atlantic]

Aircraft Recon is investigating TD Nineteen right now. I personally feel like based off of data the storm is 35-40 kts.

 

[Atlantic]

TD Nineteen is now Tropical Storm Sara!!!!

047
WTNT34 KNHC 141745
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
100 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM SARA...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 82.9W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

 

[jiharris0220]

Thankfully (for Florida) the burial into Central America scenario was the outcome that verified.

La-Nina like Southeastern ridging denied a US landfall.

Hopefully that same ridging stays through winter along with a +PNA/TNH pattern as that would force arctic air straight down into the central US.

Meaning higher chances for winter weather.

(Apologies to snow haters)

 

[Atlantic]

I still think that we cannot completely discount a hurricane or even a major hurricane just yet, even if the models aren't showing it happening. Otis and John from the 2023 and 2024 EPAC seasons and Milton from this season weren't initalized correctly during model runs. They even didn't call for quick intenifcation during those storms or even before. Sara's appearance is getting better quickly.

Look at these two images set 6 hours apart;

 

[Atlantic]

Another recon mission is preparing to leave for Sara;

 

[Atlantic]

Sara still appears to be getting better organized: