Tropical Storm Bertha

[Mike S]

12Zs all basically same solutions - a disorganized bottom-heavy mess heading into lake Pontchartrain.

This one is sitting with me - won't get out of my head. Not sure why. I think because it wouldn't take much for it to overperform prediction.

They almost all seem to overperform in recent years.

 

[Blountwolf]

They almost all seem to overperform in recent years.

I'm particularly glad this one hasn't so far. This path would not be good for the coast at any decent strength. Pretty good flare up this morning, though obvious that shear is still pushing everything south. The question is how much longer... shear is relaxing some.


Still pretty high though.

 

[Blountwolf]

Very symmetrical system at the surface. Stacked, this would be off to the races.

 

[Clancy]

Currently at 60 MPH sustained winds. Wonder if it'll briefly reach C1.

 

[Blountwolf]

Feeling thankful for shear. This could be a whole different situation if convection could stack on it.

I notice models are trending west again. NAM coast walks it to Corpus Christi. HRRR is lake Pontchartrain again and then up the river.

 

[akt1985]

Honestly, the severe storms today over the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast this afternoon might be a bigger deal than Tropical Storm Bertha.

 

[Blountwolf]

Honestly, the severe storms today over the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast this afternoon might be a bigger deal than Tropical Storm Bertha.

Yeah, no real contest there.