Tropical Storm Tropical Storm Arthur

[BamaWX]

The NHC is now issuing advisories for Potential Tropical Cyclone One, and there is a small window for it to become Tropical Storm Author.

The main threat from this storm will be the potential for significant flooding from eastern Texas to southern Alabama, with some spots receiving 7 to 10+ inches of rainfall.

 

[KevinH]

THIS I am watching

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Nice, my eyes are on the potential for some tropical tornado mischief!

 

[KevinH]

Nice, my eyes are on the potential for some tropical tornado mischief!

Me too...

The SPC issues outlooks for tropical tornadoes right? lol

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

 

[JPWX]

Arthur trying to get away from DW. LOL!

 

[akt1985]

This system just might wipe out the drought over south Alabama.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Think we will see a 5% tornado risk for tommrow from this system

 

[KevinH]

Think we will see a 5% tornado risk for tommrow from this system

For what areas?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

We now have tropical storm Arthur!

Probably south Alabama and parts of West Georgia.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[KevinH]

We now have tropical storm Arthur!

Probably south Alabama and parts of West Georgia.

Oh great! lol

I'll be watching. I haven't looked at a whole lot with this storm but I am just expecting a lot of rain at most. MAYBE a couple of tropical tornadoes? idk

 

[JPWX]

I am concerned that North MS gets more from TS Arthur than currently being portrayed. This is definitely going in further west than anticipated plus the fact this is east side weighted too.

 

[Blountwolf]

I'm concerned about Lafayette over to Lake Charles, LA. HRRR is parking training tropical downpours over the area.

 

[KevinH]

SPC D1 Outlook updates on 6/18/26 at 9am ET

Categorical:


Tornado:


Will be interesting to see if any of these outlook areas are shifted in either direction. I am not too sure about TROPICAL systems, but I guess we will see as the day goes on.

Does anyone know the highest tornado category ever issued for a TROPICAL storm?

 

[Blountwolf]

I'm concerned about Lafayette over to Lake Charles, LA. HRRR is parking training tropical downpours over the area.

HRRR was on to something, but it was a little far south with it. Training now over Simmesport - started pouring at 4am and hasn't stopped since.

 

[JPWX]

5% to 15% TOR Prob are usually the maxes for any tropical system.

 

[KevinH]

5% to 15% TOR Prob are usually the maxes for any tropical system.

Oh ok, cool. Heavy emphasis on “usually” though.. ha ha ha

I only say that because it seems like the earth is sneakily doing things it has never done before, and the last time I said that on here people did not like it very much… BUT STILL.. lol

 

[KevinH]

5% to 15% TOR Prob are usually the maxes for any tropical system.

And expanding the 10% and 5% further east is exactly what they did with this last update lol

 

[KevinH]

Tornado watch #351 was updated and shifted a bit east on its northern end... cancelling the watch for a few counties in west central AL and adding counties in east central AL.

The end of MD #1185 states:
"Curved low-level hodographs and 0-500 m SRH in excess of 100 m2/s2 will also promote a continued threat for tornadoes, both with this activity and any additional development preceding this convective line. Downstream watch extensions and eventually a new Tornado Watch will likely be needed to cover these threats."

I guess I am up next for WW lol