Tropical Depression Tropical Depression Gordon (Gulf of Mexico)

Taylor Campbell

Taylor Campbell

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The long tracking tropical wave we’ve been watching is now labeled Invest 91L. It is forecast to become named, and make landfall in the northern Gulf Coast in the next few days.
 
Shear has really subsided, and it is organizing well. I’m still leaning more toward the stronger end of model predictions, and possibly stronger seeing how the environment has improved so much.
 
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Tropical Storm watches up for Central Gulf Coast

234741_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
Things are starting to ramp up, I wonder if the Saharan dust over the Atlantic is calming down.
 
Looks like we have Gordon. Cool name.
Make sure that storm doesn't get a crowbar </ref>
 
Very small inner core. Landfall over South Florida helped frictionally tighten the LLC, which allowed NHC to classify Gordon. Some pretty healthy gusts over South Florida...many 40s and 50s mph.

These small storms are often hard for the globals to resolve. Don't discount the HWRF, which ramps this up nicely. Very warm water and weak upper level winds are present...only caveat to significant strengthening is the forward motion.
 
A Hurricane Warning has been issued from the Mouth of the Pearl
River to the Alabama-Florida Border. This warning replaces the
Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for this area.
 
May need to ping @Kory for this, but IIRC this is definitely not a good track for the New Orleans metro as this could allow the storm surge to funnel into the L shaped coastline just N of the city, which is what lead to the Katrina disaster. Not sure if its an entirely correct match though, as Katrina came up from due S and not SE like this one is.
 
An angle of approach from the SE/ESE, where the city is subject to north/northeast winds, funnels the water into the drainage canals. Often, the antecedent pattern to storms approaching at this angle allow water to pile up days in advance. Right now, tides are 2-4 feet above normal because of the continual E/SE winds from the ridge over the Eastern US.

The most notable hurricanes prior to Katrina have all taken that ESE to WNW path. 1947 Ft Lauderdale hurricane, Hurricane Betsy, and almost Hurricane George in 1998, which many thought was going to be a Katrina but it turned at the last minute into MS. Hurricane Isaac devastated LaPlace and River Parishes because of this as well. Isaac actually spurred a levee project for the River Parishes because of how devastating it was. People think a path west of the city is bad, but a path from the ESE or one that passes JUST east of the city is worst for the city proper. A western path would push water out of the draining canals and likely devastate the communities on the north shore of Lake Pontchartrain.
 
This is not going to be like Katrina, even with the approach angle. At present the surge in Lake’s Pontchartrain and Maurepas is predicted to be 1-2 ft. Lake Borgne is predicted to be 3-5 ft. The Northshore communities will be fine for the most part. There will be the usual flooding along the lakefront, but the most affected will be Slidell and Eden Isles. After Katrina the homes in Mandeville were required to be elevated to 15-18 ft, so I think even they will be fine.
 
WBB said:
present the surge in Lake’s Pontchartrain and Maurepas is predicted to be 1-2 ft. Lake Borgne is predicted to be 3-5 ft. The Northshore communities will be fine for the most part. There will be the usual flooding along the lakefront, but the most affected will be Slidell and Eden Isles. After Katrina the homes i
Click to expand...
Oh yeah, in no way was I implying that. I was moreso addressing the more problematic issues with storms that come from the SE/ESE.

For all intents and purposes, this appears to be a MS/AL Gulf Coast landfall as I stated above.
 
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