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Texas Flash Flood Event July 4, 2025

Sky_I565 said:
From what I've read and listen to over the last 3 days is, the NWS San Antonio would have normaly had 2 forecasters on the midnight shift, but they brought in "3" extra staff to cover the threat that was evolving, plenty of staff that night.They could have had 15 forecaster's there and still they could not have done anymore to prevent the situation that can be seen in the below graphic or would have saved anymore human lives at 4:00 A.M. in the dead of night.

Human beings can only wake up and react so fast, and this horrible, historic event occured much to fast for any human to respond properly. Sometimes horrifc tragedy happens in this world and theres really not one thing that can stop it. This is not one President's fault, a Democrat, Rebublican, or the NWS fault.It's just the fragility of humanity.All the warnings and technology in the world sometimes is just not enough to save our lives.

My heart is crushed for all the parents of those sweet little Angels that were lost. It's just too hard to comprehend it all really.May God Bless them and comfort them in the days, weeks, and years ahead.



View attachment 44889
Click to expand...
This statement reminds me of the Joplin event and how it formed too fast for a tor-e to get issued, remarkable event and lets hope it doesn't occur again soon.
 
OH-IOan said:
Reports as of writing indicate 82, so I'm not sure where you got that number from. Could realistically surpass the 100 mark, with how many are missing after three days.
Click to expand...
I think the article said it was expecting the total to surpass 100 due to the amount of people missing. This is where I read it from

www.dailymail.co.uk

Texas flood death set to top 100 as relatives summoned to ID bodies

Texas officials privately warned of a devastating loss of life due to the flooding in Texas Hill Country in emails shared with Daily Mail.
www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk
 
OH-IOan said:
View attachment 44895
This... cannot be happening right now.
Click to expand...
1751898315331.png

around that area.

for flash flooding , the sounding would need
  • EBWD: <30 knots
  • 3CAPE: 20+
  • MLCAPE: 1000+
  • MUCAPE: 1250+
  • BRN: >= 10+
  • PW: 0.787+

Worst case PDS Flash flooding would be
  • EBWD: <30 knots
  • 3CAPE: 100+
  • MLCAPE: 2100+
  • MUCAPE: 2100+
  • BRN: >= 45
  • MLCIN: > -50
  • MUCIN: > -50
  • LowRH: 90+
  • MidRH: 90+
  • MMP: 0.6+
  • K: 40+
  • PW: 1.7+

the BRN right now is at 1235.2

while the K index is under 40 , the MLCAPE under 2100 , and the RH is not over 90%.
the rest is all over the threshold for the worst case disaster.

PW is over 2.1 to even 2.2 at areas right now.
1751899247682.png
 
joshoctober16 said:
around that area.

for flash flooding , the sounding would need
  • EBWD: <30 knots
  • 3CAPE: 20+
  • MLCAPE: 1000+
  • MUCAPE: 1250+
  • BRN: >= 10+
  • PW: 0.787+

Worst case PDS Flash flooding would be
  • EBWD: <30 knots
  • 3CAPE: 100+
  • MLCAPE: 2100+
  • MUCAPE: 2100+
  • BRN: >= 45
  • MLCIN: > -50
  • MUCIN: > -50
  • LowRH: 90+
  • MidRH: 90+
  • MMP: 0.6+
  • K: 40+
  • PW: 1.7+

the BRN right now is at 1235.2

while the K index is under 40 , the MLCAPE under 2100 , and the RH is not over 90%.
the rest is all over the threshold for the worst case disaster.

PW is over 2.1 to even 2.2 at areas right now.
Click to expand...
Sorry, I'm a weather noob. Does this mean good or bad?
 
There are 10 deceased but unidentified children in Kerr County, and then there are still 10 campers missing. Anyone know if those 10 unidentified are the 10 missing or are there an additional 10 still actually missing? Heartbreaking either way, but if it is the latter option that could mean almost 40 deaths at Camp Mystic. Unfathomable how that camp was so unprepared for this.
 
Warnings for this event were definitely issued in time and the language properly communicated the threat for catastrophe, however it's hard to argue that if cuts hadn't lead to certain key vacancies the outcome may have been better.

Tom Fahy, the legislative director for the National Weather Service Employees Organization, a union that represents government employees, said the San Antonio weather forecasting office did not have two of its top positions filled — a permanent science officer (a role that conducts training and is in charge of implementing new technology) or a warning coordination meteorologist (who coordinates with the media and is the public face of the office), though there are employees acting in those leadership roles. Overall, Fahy said, the offices had enough meteorologists to respond to the event.


Fahy said the San Antonio/Austin weather forecasting office is operating with 11 staff meteorologists and is down six employees from its typical full staffing level of 26. He also said the nearby San Angelo office, whichissued warnings for parts of central Texas, is short four staff members from its usual staffing level of 23. The meteorologist-in-charge position — the office’s top leadership position — is not permanently filled. The office is also without a senior hydrologist.


“In San Angelo, there is no hydrologist, and that’s a problem,” Fahy said. Hydrologists analyze stream flow and play a key role in flood response.
Click to expand...

So the main WFOs for this event were collectively missing a permanent science officer, a warning coordination meteorologist, a meteorologist in charge, and a senior hydrologist. I fail to see how at least 3 out of 4 of those positions couldn't have significantly contributed to a more positive outcome for this event.

Source
www.nbcnews.com

National Weather Service defends its flood warnings amid fresh scrutiny of Trump staff cuts

Experts said warnings issued in the run-up to this weekend’s flooding were as timely and accurate as possible, but questions about whether the alerts reached people most at risk remain.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
Warnings for this event were definitely issued in time and the language properly communicated the threat for catastrophe, however it's hard to argue that if cuts hadn't lead to certain key vacancies the outcome may have been better.



So the main WFOs for this event were collectively missing a permanent science officer, a warning coordination meteorologist, a meteorologist in charge, and a senior hydrologist. I fail to see how at least 3 out of 4 of those positions couldn't have significantly contributed to a more positive outcome for this event.

Source
www.nbcnews.com

National Weather Service defends its flood warnings amid fresh scrutiny of Trump staff cuts

Experts said warnings issued in the run-up to this weekend’s flooding were as timely and accurate as possible, but questions about whether the alerts reached people most at risk remain.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com
Click to expand...
That's funny because this is on about us on NWS Austin-San Antonio page.
 

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