Svr Wx threat April 1-April 2 2024

[Clancy]

For us Deep South folks, this is the area we ought to keep an eye on. Seeing quite a few folks, even knowledgeable ones, discount the southern end of the threat completely, as though they've never seen what a late-night LLJ can do down here. Showers already developing across the Gulf Coast, and as these move northeast, will have to pay very close attention for development.

 

[Clancy]

I know the models are of less use now that the event is ongoing, but the Southern part of the event is still 6-12 hours out for some areas, so I figured I'd take a look. Here's the NAM 3k at Fort Benning, GA at 1 AM.

View attachment 24809

What if we tweak the Temp and DPT just 2 degrees warmer? This seems definitely plausible, given the atmosphere. That surges the surface-based CAPE and fuels the atmosphere even more.

View attachment 24810

Let's play this again....

This time, let's look at Birmingham 20z HRRR at 8 PM CDT tonight. Then, we'll raise the DPT to 73. This may be a bit too high, but not impossible.

View attachment 24815

View attachment 24816


Definitely an impressive parameter space for tonight/morning in the South.

Absolutely nuts how much the projected wind fields have changed over the course of just a few days.

 

[Justin Hindman]

tornado crossed one mile south of new castle on hwy 421, right by Henry middle school

 

[cincywx]

cincinnati cell looks less impressive on CVG terminal doppler.

edit: when viewing from ILN, gr2a has a TVS back on it as of 6:25p ET

 

[Evan]

I know the models are of less use now that the event is ongoing, but the Southern part of the event is still 6-12 hours out for some areas, so I figured I'd take a look. Here's the NAM 3k at Fort Benning, GA at 1 AM.

View attachment 24809

What if we tweak the Temp and DPT just 2 degrees warmer? This seems definitely plausible, given the atmosphere. That surges the surface-based CAPE and fuels the atmosphere even more.

View attachment 24810

Let's play this again....

This time, let's look at Birmingham 20z HRRR at 8 PM CDT tonight. Then, we'll raise the DPT to 73. This may be a bit too high, but not impossible.

View attachment 24815

View attachment 24816


Definitely an impressive parameter space for tonight/morning in the South.

I don't foresee the dewpoint in Birmingham breaking 70, TBH. I'll actually be quite surprised if it makes it above the 67-68 area. Not enough time.

 

[TornadoFan]

Might be worth keeping an eye on the Bowling Green storm.

 

[Justin Hindman]

 

[Tennie]

Might be worth keeping an eye on the Bowling Green storm.

It's got a tornado warning on it now!

 

[TornadoFan]

Bowling Green storm now tornado warned.

 

[Evan]

Feel free to correct if I’m wrong, Not to the say the fat lady is singing, but a lot of the western edges of the risk areas are about to be overtaken by the cold front. Cincinnati is that nasty cell away from maybe being in the clear? And a lot of the convective mode around other “cells” seem to be a little more linear and messy.

Outside of that new castle Cell, I don’t think the storms in central and southwest KY are going to go tornadic either.

I haven't been impressed thus far. Thankfully, it doesn't appear that a higher-end type of event is in the cards anymore. That said, I've watched way too many events over the decades suddenly ramp up when least expected. Not at all saying that will happen here, and certainly areas where the front is moving through are now out of the woods, but we've still got a ways to go.

So many events appear to have great potential but then an unexpected fly in the ointment puts a ceiling on things. Lot of areas should stay on guard but I agree the trend is positive.

 

[cincywx]

 

[Evan]

It's got a tornado warning on it now!

There are additional cells east of Bowling Green that I have my eye on. The area east of Bowling Green, up to as far north as Louisville/Lexington, and east over to Morehead is where I see potential over the next couple of hours.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

View attachment 24819

Such an odd looking cell

 

[andyhb]

The problem today further west has been the forcing lagging the warm sector and likely fairly thin CAPE profiles preventing the smaller storms from getting strong enough to resist entrainment (which kills updrafts). The strong shear needed to be balanced by larger CAPE (which may have been mitigated partially by early convection) and by stronger forcing for ascent. That hasn't happened as much.

 

[Mike S]

I’m not a pro but is there not something brewing in Muscle Shoals and Russellville Alabama?

I've been watching that storm since it was approaching Red Bay. A SVR was issued just now for that storm as it approaches Athens.

 

[KevinH]

dont question the MAN

I always ask questions lol

 

[NorthBamaWX]

I've been watching that storm since it was approaching Red Bay. A SVR was issued just now for that storm as it approaches Athens.

it just went over my house. Heavy rain little wind

 

[Chris3024]

I've been watching that storm since it was approaching Red Bay. A SVR was issued just now for that storm as it approaches Athens.

with a Tor possible tag

 

[KevinH]

So far all of the supercells have been oblong and disorganized, which is a sign of weak forcing.
Key word here is so far and things can go off the rails once again at night fall.
Way too early to say things aren’t going as forecasted.

That part!

 

[Evan]

West of Montgomery, AL has some cells firing. Could warrant interest in the coming hours.