Svr Wx threat April 1-April 2 2024

[TH2002]

New Castle is gonna get smacked if it holds together...

 

[Clancy]

E TN Tornado Watch out.

 

[cheestaysfly]

WLKY on-air meteorologist asked his wife to get his family, in the path of the tornado, to the basement, a moment ago.
Streaming link: https://www.wlky.com/article/louisville-weather-storms-tuesday-wind-hail-tornado-strong/60366893

I hope they're okay!!

 

[atrainguy]

 

[TornadoFan]

New Castle storm looks pretty strong

 

[Clancy]

Long-lead-time TORR issued ahead of that Louisville cell.

 

[TornadoFan]

The line sw of Louisville looks like it broke up into discrete cells.

 

[Evan]

Thus far, it has seemed like these storms have a tendency to cycle versus producing long-trackers. I'll take that as a positive even though we have a long way to go.

 

[Clancy]

These storms west of Nashville could cause some issues.

 

[JPWX]

My tornado threat has ended for Northeast MS. Folks just be thankful and blessed that it hasn't gotten as bad as it could have been thus far. I know Alabama and other areas still have a while left so we still need to be alert. Stay safe!

 

[GeneralChow]

Cincinatti

 

[172556]

Could probably use a tornado warning SW of Cincinnati, but maybe it's just me...

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

Thus far, it has seemed like these storms have a tendency to cycle versus producing long-trackers. I'll take that as a positive even though we have a long way to go.

Feel free to correct if I’m wrong, Not to the say the fat lady is singing, but a lot of the western edges of the risk areas are about to be overtaken by the cold front. Cincinnati is that nasty cell away from maybe being in the clear? And a lot of the convective mode around other “cells” seem to be a little more linear and messy.

Outside of that new castle Cell, I don’t think the storms in central and southwest KY are going to go tornadic either.

 

[Justin Hindman]

pretty much had it behind me a mile for ten minutes, got to new castle and dropped south. Made it safe, rfd was insane, rain wrapped

 

[Clancy]

Storm just got TOR-warned and it took a jog northward, towards Cincy. They're gonna need to fix that warning.

 

[KevinH]

For my Alabama people

Isolated tornado? In a ENH risk?

 

[NorthBamaWX]

Isolated tornado? In a ENH risk?

dont question the MAN

 

[tornado examiner]

Safe to say this event isn’t happening as forecast...while there are tornadoes it was seemingly gonna be much worse. But those failure modes put a big damper on things. Supercells are struggling to organize and gain ideal structure.

 

[wx_guy]

I know the models are of less use now that the event is ongoing, but the Southern part of the event is still 6-12 hours out for some areas, so I figured I'd take a look. Here's the NAM 3k at Fort Benning, GA at 1 AM.



What if we tweak the Temp and DPT just 2 degrees warmer? This seems definitely plausible, given the atmosphere. That surges the surface-based CAPE and fuels the atmosphere even more.



Let's play this again....

This time, let's look at Birmingham 20z HRRR at 8 PM CDT tonight. Then, we'll raise the DPT to 73. This may be a bit too high, but not impossible.






Definitely an impressive parameter space for tonight/morning in the South.

 

[jiharris0220]

So far all of the supercells have been oblong and disorganized, which is a sign of weak forcing.
Key word here is so far and things can go off the rails once again at night fall.
Way too early to say things aren’t going as forecasted.