Svr Wx threat April 1-April 2 2024

[Clancy]

 

[tornado examiner]

Is there actual a cap in place? I thought there was one

 

[172556]

I was thinking the same. I’m just not sold on the eastern KY threat area compared the others to the west and south.

I'm thinking the northwest side of the watch is the most viable. I still haven't seen sunshine or clear sky, it's raining again, and temps have fallen - currently 67/61.

Edit: Aaaaand we're downgraded to ENH.

 

[TH2002]

Way too late to issue the warning, and way too quick to cancel it. It expired in only 10 minutes anyways. If they are confident its no longer on the ground, just let it expire. Don't cancel it.

Yeah, normally I don't condone bashing the NWS but I simply don't understand what Evansville is thinking with their approach...

 

[NorthBamaWX]

 

[KevinH]

I wonder if they'll add a moderate down in AL/GA.

I hope not

 

[Clancy]

 

[Tanner]

Cap holding strong

I don't see too much of a cap, just weak on mesoanalysis.

 

[Cood101]

I'm noticing on some other Storm-based websites like r/Tornado, there are some erronious statements about the current setup. It seems some think the QLCS that moved through KY/WV earlier was the main concern.

 

[Tanner]

I don't see too much of a cap, just weak on mesoanalysis.

If anything I would think that would keep overcrowding of convection from occurring.

 

[KevinH]

Not a lot of changes to the 4pm ET update



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT TUE APR 02 2024

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

..SUMMARY

A LOCAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING PRIMARILY ACROSS THE MID-OHIO VALLEY AREA, WITH THE BROADER
SEVERE WEATHER RISK EXTENDING EAST TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, AND
SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST. STRONG TORNADOES REMAIN MOST LIKELY FROM
SOUTHERN INDIANA TO CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID SOUTH.
A THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES MAY FOCUS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF ALABAMA AND GEORGIA.

..DISCUSSION

PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING LARGELY REMAINS ON TRACK, THOUGH
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OUTLOOK AREAS -- INCLUDING TRIMMING THE MDT RISK
ON THE EASTERN FRINGE -- HAVE BEEN IMPLEMENTED.

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRIOR CONVECTION HAVE HINDERED WARM-SECTOR
RECOVERY INTO THE MODERATE-RISK AREA, BUT CLEARING EVIDENT IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM WESTERN KENTUCKY TO CENTRAL OHIO HAS OCCURRED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS CORRIDOR REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER, INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES.

ELSEWHERE, EARLIER REASONING REMAINS VALID, WITH A BROAD AREA OF
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL STILL EVIDENT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
GULF COAST.

..GOSS.. 04/02/2024

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

If anything I would think that would keep overcrowding of convection from occurring.

If anything, a Cap within the EML may have raised the ceiling on this event and prevented multiple rounds of showers over the northern sector this morning

 

[Tennie]

I don't see any changes.

Much of eastern Kentucky was reduced from Moderate to Enhanced, so there's that at least...

 

[Tanner]

Moderate risk shrunk considerably.

 

[Clancy]

Few changes in the 20Z except for reducing the eastward extent of the MDT.

 

[Clancy]

New Tornado Watch for parts of the South. 60/30 probs.

 

[NorthBamaWX]

 

[jiharris0220]

I guess they think the crapvection has stunted the atmosphere enough to reduce the eastward threat. We shall see.

 

[Justin Hindman]

74/67 approaching Louisville. Not sure how this won’t intensify

 

[MMWX]

New Tornado Watch for parts of the South. 60/30 probs.

Thought this watch would cover more than it is. Particularly in the South.