Svr Wx threat April 1-April 2 2024

[Gail]

Sun is trying its best to poke out in the Starkville/Columbus MS area. Very windy as well. We were forecasted to be pretty cloudy today.

I’m in Caledonia, and the skies are fairly broken right now.

 

[MMWX]

So many couplets in these WV storms

 

[Justin Hindman]

What changes (if any) do yall think the SPC will make for the next update in about an hour?

They will probably copy paste lol

 

[OHWX97]

At the moment, nothing but clear skies here in southwest Warren County, OH. That being said, the convection to the south and west is heading this way, and unless anything robust can come from it, I can definitely imagine that being a big fly in the ointment in regards to the threat later today.

 

[cincywx]

gotta think the ongoing convection in S/SW IN & NW KY will ultimately temper the threat for the ohio river area. curious to see what the SPC has to say in an hour.

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[tornado examiner]

The moderate may be significantly shrunk…definitely not going high risk

 

[Tomcats Forever!]

Looks like storm mode might be a limiting factor around Louisville.

 

[Clancy]

Instability is already moving back north across parts of MO and KY. Yet to see how it fares up towards Ohio but it definitely isn't going away.

 

[buckeye05]

Looks like storm mode might be a limiting factor around Louisville.

That’s not the “main show”. We won’t know what the convective mode will be like until later. Destabilization is happening as we speak, and there’s ample time for it to reach sufficient levels before the afternoon storms take off. This one of those really dynamic systems where it happens quickly.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

One of the flies in the ointment he mentions is the Arkansas/TN complex currently propagating north and eastward

 

[UK_EF4]

Maybe, but I severely doubt it as this was expected.
Look at the dry slot punching its way up north immediately behind the convection.
View attachment 24721

That looks like it could evolve into the maximum risk zone later on. Also getting more and more moisture into that region as we speak

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

That’s not the “main show”. We won’t know what the convective mode will be like until later. Destabilization is happening as we speak, and there’s ample time for it to reach sufficient levels before the afternoon storms take off. This one of those really dynamic systems where it happens quickly.

Even Hype Man Reed made note that this is very conditional and dynamic as you noted.

 

[jiharris0220]

I think people are basing the Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency of this being the crapvection when in reality the real Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency factor is random chance storm mode.
Crapvection has been well forecasted and cams have still trended to a more potent outbreak. It all rides on if storms remain discrete.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

I think people are basing the Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency of this being the crapvection when in reality the real Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency factor is random chance storm mode.
Crapvection has been well forecasted and cams have still trended to a more potent outbreak. It all rides on if storms remain discrete.

Oh I’m not pulling the B word out by any means of the imagination, only commenting on one of the possible “limiting factors” Trey stated in his forecast discussion video.

It’s nowcast mode and as others have noted, it’s very dynamic and everything can switch quickly.

 

[cincywx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0345
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1058 AM CDT TUE APR 02 2024

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN IL...EXTREME NORTHERN
KY...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021558Z - 021830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A GRADUALLY INCREASING SEVERE HAIL THREAT SHOULD EXIST
WITH SLOWLY INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
VICINITY. THE DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT REMAIN LESS CLEAR,
BUT SOME RISK MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND VICINITY. THIS
ACTIVITY IS LARGELY TIED TO PRONOUNCED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET. MOST OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ELEVATED, AND LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RELATED TO EARLIER MORNING CONVECTION NOW IN WV.
STILL, VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATION TRENDS SHOW
ATTEMPTS AT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS AND FILTERED DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IN. WHILE MUCAPE REMAINS WEAK AT THE MOMENT,
INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE BOTH FORECAST TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PHASE OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MAINLY SEVERE HAIL INITIALLY. THE
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON WHETHER SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING/WARMING WILL
OCCUR TO SUPPORT TRULY SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. REGARDLESS OF THIS
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY WITH INSTABILITY, THE GRADUALLY INCREASING
SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAY EVENTUALLY PROMPT WATCH
ISSUANCE.

..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 04/02/2024

 

[Tanner]

View attachment 24724

They don't sound very confident for a 15#.

 

[Clancy]

Last several runs of HRRR show discrete development ahead of the main QLCS in AL and GA.

 

[warneagle]

They don't sound very confident for a 15#.

This is mostly in the SLT/ENH area north/west of the 15 hatched.

 

[jiharris0220]

Which is surprising considering the 60 DEW line is already on the border of Ohio/Indiana.

They don't sound very confident for a 15#.