Svr Wx threat April 1-April 2 2024

[jiharris0220]

It’s not that necessarily the moisture return isn’t as robust. Its that it is being blocked by convection to the south, which the Hrrr has trended stronger.

 

[Former Member 1430]

Ohio. Moisture return doesn't look like it's gonna be as robust.

Well still too early to call but that was my concern earlier. I think we will know a lot by morning.

 

[Tennie]

Hominy, OK, is now under a tornado warning.

 

[KevinH]

The blue and purplish areas as highlighted on the 21Z SREF are where I'd be most concerned for tornado risk tomorrow. Shear really ramps up in the evening with intensifying low-level winds, with instability holding on well into the night; the western half of GA and much of AL ought to be on their toes tomorrow night.
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@Clancy!!!!!…. Hush!

lol

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

I actually like and agree with some of the more “conservative” approaches some have taken on here concerning this event.

Crapvection is in play, and while the atmosphere can recover, moisture return, focus for convective initiation, and storm mode are still very large question marks. Eventually one of these events this year will “verify” after the slow start, I just don’t really know or think it will be this one at this junction.

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[KevinH]

Ohio. Moisture return doesn't look like it's gonna be as robust.

Bc it’s headed to Dixie apparently

 

[Justin Hindman]

with all that moisture in Kentucky, it’s gonna block the stuff to the north imo

 

[KevinH]

CSU ML probs for D5 and D6. Pretty aggressive on those D5 probs. While I have questions about troughing, wind shear and the ultimate extent of instability, one thing is clear - moisture return will not be an issue with this setup.
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Just wanted to bring this up again…. From last THURSDAY. Shout out to @Clancy

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Moderate risk in southern Oklahoma downgraded to Enhanced tonight

...Because the sig hail threat has peaked and, while it remains, will be less widespread in coverage. Large 10% hatched tornado area remains.

 

[TornadoFan]

Just wanted to bring this up again…. From last THURSDAY. Shout out to @Clancy

That aged well

 

[jiharris0220]

Lol, the 0z hrrr is now trending back towards less crapvection towards the south, allowing better moisture return.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Clancy]

Lol, the 0z hrrr is now trending back towards less crapvection towards the south, allowing better moisture return.

Oh the woes of the HRRR. Always does something weird the night before.

 

[Former Member 1430]

Middle TN… Seems like an uptick on the newest HRRR

 

[jiharris0220]

Oh the woes of the HRRR. Always does something weird the night before.

Hrrr once again proving why it’s storm mode initiation is about as reliable as a farmer’s almanac.

 

[TornadoFan]

We're back to the supercell printer.

 

[OHWX97]

00z HRRR depicts a nightmare scenario for the Cincinnati metro at 20-21z.

 

[Tanner]

Honestly, in 2024 fashion, it looks the inversion is going to prevent todays tornado threat from being realized.

 

[TornadoFan]