Svr Wx threat April 1-April 2 2024

[GeneralChow]

Ryan Hall has a chaser in the St. Louis storm. Tornado no longer on the ground. They got into the storm a bit too late.



Video allegedly shows the tornado near Chesterfield, MO.

 

[TornadoFan]

Pretty structure on the St. Louis storm.

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[GeneralChow]

This is near Kingfisher.


Earlier Kingfisher Tornado

 

[Clancy]

The blue and purplish areas as highlighted on the 21Z SREF are where I'd be most concerned for tornado risk tomorrow. Shear really ramps up in the evening with intensifying low-level winds, with instability holding on well into the night; the western half of GA and much of AL ought to be on their toes tomorrow night.

 

[wx_guy]

The blue and purplish areas as highlighted on the 21Z SREF are where I'd be most concerned for tornado risk tomorrow. Shear really ramps up in the evening with intensifying low-level winds, with instability holding on well into the night; the western half of GA and much of AL ought to be on their toes tomorrow night.
View attachment 24621

Do you think the SPC could issue a bimodal risk area tomorrow, given these trends? One in Ohio, the other in Dixie Alley?

 

[JPWX]

The blue and purplish areas as highlighted on the 21Z SREF are where I'd be most concerned for tornado risk tomorrow. Shear really ramps up in the evening with intensifying low-level winds, with instability holding on well into the night; the western half of GA and much of AL ought to be on their toes tomorrow night.
View attachment 24621

Clancy what does it show for Northeast MS? I don't have Pivotal Plus

 

[Clancy]

Do you think the SPC could issue a bimodal risk area tomorrow, given these trends? One in Ohio, the other in Dixie Alley?

Honestly I would argue yeah, that would make sense, seeing as this southern threat is a bit of a different show than what will be happening in the OH Valley, and has been pretty well-defined on models for a while now. But I'm not SPC, so who knows!

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Honestly I would argue yeah, that would make sense, seeing as this southern threat is a bit of a different show than what will be happening in the OH Valley, and has been pretty well-defined on models for a while now. But I'm not SPC, so who knows!

I'm actually very intrigued. RAP isn't half bad on that area. Hmm! Time to check the WRFS and wait patiently for the 00z HRRR lol

 

[Clancy]

Clancy what does it show for Northeast MS? I don't have Pivotal Plus

As of a week or so ago I've been able to freely access SREF data, they seem to have added a lot for us freebie folks lately. 21Z shows an elevated STP level for northern MS in the afternoon, so y'all are definitely not out of the woods by any means.

 

[TornadoFan]

There's a CC drop sw of Wynona, Oklahoma.

 

[Chris3024]

Yep, waited for the CC drop to issue the warning

 

[Tennie]

There's a CC drop sw of Wynona, Oklahoma.

Here it is on radar:


(Note the pink in the NROT window (bottom left)--I got a reading of 2.83 from that!)

 

[GeneralChow]

There's a CC drop sw of Wynona, Oklahoma.

 

[TornadoFan]

Would this be considered an embedded supercell?

 

[Chris3024]

BIg CC blowup south of Wynona

 

[SmokeEater]

WFO Tulsa confirming.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

 

[UncleJuJu98]

That's one heck of a supercell. That may produce a strong tornado.

 

[TheSuckZone]

BIg CC blowup south of Wynona

Saw that as well

 

[Chris3024]

Brad Arnold is core-punching the New Haven, MO storm