Svr Wx threat April 1-April 2 2024

[NorthGaWeather]

I like the new Day 2, given current trends. I do think that the ENH will be pushed a few rows of counties east over time. The threat is increasing for north central Georgia.

 

[Wind Driven Coconut]

Well that escalated quickly

This is an understatement! Some of these areas were 0 or 2% tornado risk with the last update. Also, I’ve been weather watching for a long time and I honestly can’t remember all of Ohio being in a tornado driven moderate risk. I’m sure it’s happened but not recently for sure.

 

[cincywx]

THE GREATEST RISK, WHICH WILL INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF
INTENSE/LONG-TRACK TORNADOES, SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS INDIANA, AND THE
SPREAD ACROSS OHIO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POTENTIALLY
REACHING AS FAR EAST AS WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND FAR
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE EVENING. EASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE RISK
INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED, BUT OTHERWISE
THREAT MAY SPREAD INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA AND THE
CAROLINAS LATE.

this snippet of text is not something you see referred to in this part of the country very often

 

[KevinH]

this snippet of text is not you see referred to in this part of the country very often

Right…. A bit too ominous for my liking

 

[Timhsv]

Tornado threat increased across extreme North Alabama on new DAY 2

 

[JPWX]

Probably the biggest wording escalation I have ever seen in one update within a day of the event. Broyles was calling for a linear event this morning with a few QLCS tornadoes possible. Now it's discrete supercells and long-track tornadoes. Gotta love it. A HUGE 10% hatched, too. I wouldnt me shocked to see that moderate go a little Southwest in the morning into More central KY and possibly another small moderate around Northeast MS/NW Alabama.

I agree with you. I'm kinda surprised that Northeast MS is barely in the Enhanced Risk

 

[warneagle]

It’ll be interesting to see the 18z CAM runs. The 12z HRRR and 3km NAM were tossing out PDS TOR tags like Halloween candy.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Huh

 

[Clancy]

Probably one of if not the most substantial areal risk increase I can remember on a D2.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[OHWX97]

I'm convinced Mother Nature has it out for my state this year.

 

[TheSuckZone]

Probably one of if not the most substantial areal risk increase I can remember on a D2.

0/100 would be able to guess that Broyles was the left one

 

[Clancy]

0/100 would be able to guess that Broyles was the left one

Accurate; probably the only time I've heard people boggle at him being too restrained on a forecast.

 

[Austin Dawg]

I agree with you. I'm kinda surprised that Northeast MS is barely in the Enhanced Risk

This is developing a lot like many systems when I was younger in Mississippi. There were very strong storms that developed in North Mississippi and they would turn severe when they moved into Alabama that system in particular is mirrors the development of the system that developed in April 1974

 

[NorthGaWeather]

I agree with you. I'm kinda surprised that Northeast MS is barely in the Enhanced Risk

I wouldn't be shocked to see the ENH extended west into Tupelo/Starkville. You'll probably see that by 13z tomorrow. Clearly favorable, with the greatest risk over AL/TN for the south end of this event.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Impressive

 

[NorthGaWeather]

That's some juicy streamwise vorticity in the lowest km.

 

[JPWX]

This is developing a lot like many systems when I was younger in Mississippi. There were very strong storms that developed in North Mississippi and they would turn severe when they moved into Alabama that system in particular is mirrors the development of the system that developed in April 1974

I thought that same thing when I saw that Moderate Risk upgrade

 

[Timhsv]

From a guidance perspective and for sure an climatological perspective, Tuesday could be significant. That almost 60% back in North Alabama make me concerned now.

 

[buckeye05]

This has been one of the most brutal starts to tornado season in the Ohio Valley I can recall. This looks potentially worse than the previous event, which was bad enough. Worried about my family back home in Dayton.