Svr Wx Event - April 15-17, 2024

[UncleJuJu98]

Is there any ground truth on it still?

 

[lake.effect]

Couplet looks strong to violent.
Hoping it splits the uprights between Mt Pleasant and New London. Looks like it will...hope this hits cornfields only.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Well debris signature on CC now. No need for ground truth.

 

[Clancy]

Is there any ground truth on it still?

Looks to possess a TDS at the moment, though I'm not sure what it looks like from the ground. They also just continued the TORR.

 

[cincywx]

Watch Live

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[TornadoFan]

Kahoka storm is getting its act together.

 

[cincywx]

Mesoscale Discussion 0465
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0447 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Areas affected...portions of eastern/southeastern Iowa into
northwestern Illinois

Concerning...Tornado Watch 117...

Valid 162147Z - 162315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 117 continues.

SUMMARY...The ongoing convective line has evolved into semi-discrete
supercells which will allow for an increase in the risk for all
hazards over the next couple of hours. A favorable
shear/thermodynamic environment may also support a strong (EF-2+)
tornado.

DISCUSSION...As of 2140 UTC, regional radar and satellite data
showed the ongoing convective line in southeastern IA has trended
towards more semi-discrete elements, especially with southward
extent, over the last hour. The broader environment remains
favorable for severe storms with moderate buoyancy and strong
deep-layer shear established. Low-level shear has also increased
ahead of the storms with backed surface flow supporting 300-400
m2/s2 of effective SRH observed from area VADs and SPC mesoanalysis.
With a more supercellular mode emerging, the potential for stronger
mesocyclones within a strong low-level shear environment suggests an
increasing potential for tornadoes, in addition to the continued
risk for damaging winds and hail. STP values of 2-3 along with 0-3km
CAPE of 50-100 J/kg favor strong low-level stretching of vertical
vorticity. Large low-level hodogaphs may also support the risk for a
strong (EF-2+) tornado with the longer lived supercells. This
increasing risk may extended near the Quad Cities and farther east
into parts of northwestern IL over the next couple of hours.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[TheSuckZone]

Pressing his luck a little much there

 

[lake.effect]

Rotation tightening up on Fort Madison cell. This is the one to watch right now IMO

 

[TornadoFan]

Rotation tightening up on Fort Madison cell. This is the one to watch right now IMO

Got a pretty beefy wall cloud.

 

[lake.effect]

Cell just southwest of Burlington, IA needs to be watched closely.

 

[atrainguy]

 

[Tanner]

It seems like the storms have hit a proverbial barrier of either weaker thermos or unfavorable kinematics.

 

[Tanner]

It seems like the storms have hit a proverbial barrier of either weaker thermos or unfavorable kinematics.

Such a weird season. Lol.

 

[atrainguy]

 

[andyhb]

Possible tornado forming NE of Blue Grass on the west side of Davenport.

 

[jiharris0220]

Well, overall a pretty solid mini tornado outbreak. Not to much in the way of damage and no injuries so far.
A nicely verified enhanced risk, models are already picking up something in the midrange, though we all know how that’s gonna go.

 

[notsoencrypted]

The polygon is directly southwest of us, so I've put the cats in their carriers just in case. The dogs'll wait for if we get a warning. Unfortunately, it's now pitch black out and I can't really see anything.

Edit: Super irritating is that my laptop is being repaired, so I don't have easy access to good radar data at the moment. It's just a tad frustrating.