(Super) El Niño 2026-27

[tennessee storm chaser]

Well ok, so we don't know ALL of the El Niños of the last 6,000 years, but we know what we have recorded and I think that is what people are going by. So how about strongest El Niño ever recorded?

A while back I said don't be surprised when the earth continues to do things it never has before and I think I got chewed out for it, but now look

Will be praying for those that will be involved.

Great post . Very relevant…

 

[ThatGuy;P]

I feel like there's been a lot of talk about the el nino and the second season as of late, and I'm inclined to put in my two cents.
-The idea that this el nino is going to be the strongest in reccorded history, or especially the strongest ever, is Pure Speculation, and needs to be treated as such. I'll agree that this nino is record breaking once it actually starts breaking records. Before then? no dice.

-The idea that the second season is going to be really bad is again, Pure Speculation. 2015 may have had some notable activity in december, but years like 1997 were Not especially active. Also, whether or not tornadic activity occurs in the form of violent outbreaks or QLCS spam remains to be seen.

I like weather, and it excites me to see all the cool and crazy things that can happen. But it's important to not let that exctiement get you carried away.

 

[slenker]

Well ok, so we don't know ALL of the El Niños of the last 6,000 years, but we know what we have recorded and I think that is what people are going by. So how about strongest El Niño ever recorded?

A while back I said don't be surprised when the earth continues to do things it never has before and I think I got chewed out for it, but now look

Will be praying for those that will be involved.

I don’t think you guys are understanding what I am saying. I’m saying that this El Niño we’re about to go through is something the Earth has done before. It is overwhelmingly unlikely that we just so happen to live during a time where the Earth is doing something unprecedented for the last 200k years. I’m not sure where you got the 6k number from. The point I’m making is that even if this is going to be the strongest we’ve ever recorded, which is very possible and I’m not denying that, it isn’t likely to be the strongest El Niño since humans have started being around. We didn’t start recording them until the last 160 ish years, and we’ve already seen 5 events that challenge each other in strength at their peak.

Essentially, I’m saying that a 1-in-200,000 year event is overwhelmingly likely to be far stronger than a 1-in-30 year event. That’s why that post is hyperbolic. The individual who posted that has zero evidence to suggest that it will be the strongest in that long of a time, and I would expect there to be zero evidence that even exists of such a thing.

Again, I’m not disagreeing that this could be the strongest we’ve seen in our lifetimes. It very well could be. We are already seeing horrible wildfires and heat waves that are likely related to this across the world.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

This is definitely something the Earth has done before, let's just please not with that statement....

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

It could easily become the strongest in recorded history, but almost certainly not the strongest in human history. Very important distinction there. Human history has seen some wild $hit.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

This is definitely something the Earth has done before, let's just please not with that statement....

I bet there were some extremely spicy El Ninos during the Permian-Triassic extinction 252 million years ago.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

I bet there were some extremely spicy El Ninos during the Permian-Triassic extinction 252 million years ago.

True, im just talking the irritating statement a certain person makes with things the Earth has never done.

In recorded history? It's possible, absolutely. I find it hard to believe that this has never happened before. There were definitely some spicy periods back then, i would sincerely agree. We underestimate the things Earth has done before lmfao

 

[slenker]

I bet there were some extremely spicy El Ninos during the Permian-Triassic extinction 252 million years ago.

At that point, the geography of the planet was drastically different. There likely was some sort of heating/cooling cycle in place for the worlds’ oceans back then, but however it acted was likely far, far different than the El Niños of today. That’s a very interesting thing to think about by itself. Or, maybe not, and perhaps they did act similarly. Not really possible to know without a time machine, unfortunately.

 

[akt1985]

I’m trying not to be anxious about this upcoming El Niño and the political instability across the world, but it can be a challenge. I try to remember Bible verses like Matthew 6:25-34 and Proverbs 4:23 for times like now.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

You've all heard talk of super El Ninos, but don't even get me started on MEGA El Ninos.

Mega El Niños kicked off the world's worst mass extinction

Long-lasting, widespread heat and weather extremes may have caused the Great Dying extinction event 252 million years ago.

www.sciencenews.org

In all seriousness, even though we're making these distinctions, it's very important not to diminish the impact these super El Ninos have on global weather and agriculture. The more research I'm doing the more it seems like the very conditions that lead to the fertile crescent and widespread agriculture 10-12,000 years ago was the result of much less extreme weather and much milder El Ninos.

the last glacial maximum (21,000 years ago) created a much deeper ocean mixed layer and robust Walker circulations that resisted wind shifts. This made global weather and temps much more stable, and it's likely what lead to the conditions for sustainable agriculture and rapid human evolution.

Warming global temperature baselines have created shallower mixed layers and weaker Walker circulations. This creates what's called a Bjerknes feedback loop where shallower mixed layers and weaker circulations lead to even shallower mixed layers and weaker circulations. Thus leading to more frequent and stronger El Ninos, which lead to amplified shifts in weather and temperature.

Make of that what you will, but in terms of our planets history, modern humans are the tiniest fraction of a sliver of it, and these huge global shifts in weather are going to be extremely impactful.

 

[Atlantic]

You've all heard talk of super El Ninos, but don't even get me started on MEGA El Ninos.

Mega El Niños kicked off the world's worst mass extinction

Long-lasting, widespread heat and weather extremes may have caused the Great Dying extinction event 252 million years ago.

www.sciencenews.org

In all seriousness, even though we're making these distinctions, it's very important not to diminish the impact these super El Ninos have on global weather and agriculture. The more research I'm doing the more it seems like the very conditions that lead to the fertile crescent and widespread agriculture 10-12,000 years ago was the result of much less extreme weather and much milder El Ninos.

the last glacial maximum (21,000 years ago) created a much deeper ocean mixed layer and robust Walker circulations that resisted wind shifts. This made global weather and temps much more stable, and it's likely what lead to the conditions for sustainable agriculture and rapid human evolution.

Warming global temperature baselines have created shallower mixed layers and weaker Walker circulations. This creates what's called a Bjerknes feedback loop where shallower mixed layers and weaker circulations lead to even shallower mixed layers and weaker circulations. Thus leading to more frequent and stronger El Ninos, which lead to amplified shifts in weather and temperature.

Make of that what you will, but in terms of our planets history, modern humans are the tiniest fraction of a sliver of it, and these huge global shifts in weather are going to be extremely impactful.

I’m fascinated by this, as I wonder about ancient El Niños or La Niñas, as well as the dinosaurs and earlier eras before the dinosaurs version of Nino or Nina.

 

[ColdFront]

This is pure speculation and conjecture, because admittedly I am not strong on teleconnections. Wouldn’t a warmer background state like @Grand Poo Bah alluded to in his great post, actually dramatically lessen the chances we get strong/historic La Niñas such as 73-74, 2011, 1956, 1917 etc?

I’m not saying La Ninas won’t exist anymore, I’m just saying that when they do occur, they’re dealing with a much warmer average state than they were in those dates I listed. Which would in turn lessen their relative strength?

Regardless of your opinions, and again this is conjecture, it does seem like there is a trend of our El Niños are stronger when they occur and our average La Ninas are weaker when they do occur.

Without sounding like a certain infamous poster, this would have some impact on tornado seasons. I don’t think it’s coincidence that some of our biggest outbreaks on record occurred during very intense/historic La Ninas.

 

[slenker]

This is pure speculation and conjecture, because admittedly I am not strong on teleconnections. Wouldn’t a warmer background state like @Grand Poo Bah alluded to in his great post, actually dramatically lessen the chances we get strong/historic La Niñas such as 73-74, 2011, 1956, 1917 etc?

I’m not saying La Ninas won’t exist anymore, I’m just saying that when they do occur, they’re dealing with a much warmer average state than they were in those dates I listed. Which would in turn lessen their relative strength?

Regardless of your opinions, and again this is conjecture, it does seem like there is a trend of our El Niños are stronger when they occur and our average La Ninas are weaker when they do occur.

Without sounding like a certain infamous poster, this would have some impact on tornado seasons. I don’t think it’s coincidence that some of our biggest outbreaks on record occurred during very intense/historic La Ninas.

I think there’s been some substantial discussion regarding this general topic in the world of climatology. I’m not strong on it either, so take it with a grain of salt, but I recall hearing that the definition of what a La Niña/El Niño is is in the process of changing due to warmer anomalies being present in the world’s oceans in general right now. Since there’s a warmer baseline temperature to the oceans nowadays than there was just a couple decades ago, IIRC this statistically skews El Niños nowadays to be stronger than they “really are” although I do question this line of logic in a lot of ways. Again, not strong in this topic in the slightest, so I could be totally off the mark here. On the surface, I’d be inclined to believe that Niños would genuinely be stronger from SST rise, but more research is definitely needed.

 

[KevinH]

I’m trying not to be anxious about this upcoming El Niño and the political instability across the world, but it can be a challenge. I try to remember Bible verses like Matthew 6:25-34 and Proverbs 4:23 for times like now.

Remembering those words is very VERY wise thing to do, and part of the reason I made my previous comments. Don't forget Matthew 24:6. Focus on You Know Who and you will be OK. He said so, but that discussion is for another forum lol

As far as this season goes, we know that nothing is ever guaranteed with the weather until it actually happens. I would not be surprised if people are caught off guard by a natural disaster of some sort they are not used to or was not expecting. Never say never, especially given the number of disasters that have been taking place at an increasing rate.

We all need to keep an eye out, and prepare as best we can.

Now, with THAT being said, do comments about Tropical Storm/Hurricane LaLa in Hawaii go here or in another thread that doesn't seem to have been created yet? Lala of it makes landfall as a hurricane, will be the first to make landfall on The Big Island in 155 years. Lala also looks to be passing over The Big Island's Rift Zone that is at SOME risk of a landslide/mega tsunami, so I hope Lala doesn't cause that land to somehow become less stable. sigh

 

[KevinH]

I don’t think you guys are understanding what I am saying. I’m saying that this El Niño we’re about to go through is something the Earth has done before. It is overwhelmingly unlikely that we just so happen to live during a time where the Earth is doing something unprecedented for the last 200k years. I’m not sure where you got the 6k number from. The point I’m making is that even if this is going to be the strongest we’ve ever recorded, which is very possible and I’m not denying that, it isn’t likely to be the strongest El Niño since humans have started being around. We didn’t start recording them until the last 160 ish years, and we’ve already seen 5 events that challenge each other in strength at their peak.

Essentially, I’m saying that a 1-in-200,000 year event is overwhelmingly likely to be far stronger than a 1-in-30 year event. That’s why that post is hyperbolic. The individual who posted that has zero evidence to suggest that it will be the strongest in that long of a time, and I would expect there to be zero evidence that even exists of such a thing.

Again, I’m not disagreeing that this could be the strongest we’ve seen in our lifetimes. It very well could be. We are already seeing horrible wildfires and heat waves that are likely related to this across the world.

Ohhhh... I got the 6,000 year period from a source that I don't think is allowed to be mentioned on here But contrary to popular belief, the earth's existence will be a total of 7,000 years. The last 1,000 year period started in the year 2000

The records of what we do have is all we have to go by as far as record setting. we will just have to see what this El Niño does (or DOESNT do) all in all we are aware of the potential for a very impactful El Niño and that is at least a start.

 

[Atlantic]

Remembering those words is very VERY wise thing to do, and part of the reason I made my previous comments. Don't forget Matthew 24:6. Focus on You Know Who and you will be OK. He said so, but that discussion is for another forum lol

As far as this season goes, we know that nothing is ever guaranteed with the weather until it actually happens. I would not be surprised if people are caught off guard by a natural disaster of some sort they are not used to or was not expecting. Never say never, especially given the number of disasters that have been taking place at an increasing rate.

We all need to keep an eye out, and prepare as best we can.

Now, with THAT being said, do comments about Tropical Storm/Hurricane LaLa in Hawaii go here or in another thread that doesn't seem to have been created yet? Lala of it makes landfall as a hurricane, will be the first to make landfall on The Big Island in 155 years. Lala also looks to be passing over The Big Island's Rift Zone that is at SOME risk of a landslide/mega tsunami, so I hope Lala doesn't cause that land to somehow become less stable. sigh

I created the thread for Lala in tropical weather, so posts can go there.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Ohhhh... I got the 6,000 year period from a source that I don't think is allowed to be mentioned on here But contrary to popular belief, the earth's existence will be a total of 7,000 years. The last 1,000 year period started in the year 2000

The records of what we do have is all we have to go by as far as record setting. we will just have to see what this El Niño does (or DOESNT do) all in all we are aware of the potential for a very impactful El Niño and that is at least a start.

Most of the users in this thread right now.

 

[KevinH]

I created the thread for Lala in tropical weather, so posts can go there.

Oh! I forgot about the TROPICAL thread. Thank you very much!

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

This is pure speculation and conjecture, because admittedly I am not strong on teleconnections. Wouldn’t a warmer background state like @Grand Poo Bah alluded to in his great post, actually dramatically lessen the chances we get strong/historic La Niñas such as 73-74, 2011, 1956, 1917 etc?

I’m not saying La Ninas won’t exist anymore, I’m just saying that when they do occur, they’re dealing with a much warmer average state than they were in those dates I listed. Which would in turn lessen their relative strength?

Regardless of your opinions, and again this is conjecture, it does seem like there is a trend of our El Niños are stronger when they occur and our average La Ninas are weaker when they do occur.

Without sounding like a certain infamous poster, this would have some impact on tornado seasons. I don’t think it’s coincidence that some of our biggest outbreaks on record occurred during very intense/historic La Ninas.

Deep-past climate models demonstrate that ENSO variability has been a robust, active component of Earth's climate system since at least the Mesozoic era (10s of millions of years ago). (Source)

During the hyper-warm Pliocene Era (3.5 to 5 million years ago) the equatorial Pacific featured a highly reduced east-west temperature gradient. Rather than traditional oscillations, the baseline climate resembled a continuous, permanent El Niño state that effectively distributed tropical heat to the poles. (Source)

The permanent El Nino state was defined by the geological temperature gradient structure across the ocean rather than temperature anomalies based on the 30 year average like it is today. During a permanent El Nino state the eastern Pacific Cold Tongue completely vanishes. The temperature difference between the east and west Pacific dropped to near zero. The flat profile became the permanent baseline.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Historically strong El Ninos actually typically crash straight through neutral into strong persistent La Ninas. Here's the current Euro forecast.