(Super) El Niño 2026-27

[N0mz]

I figured it would be worth it to have a centralized discussion on the impacts of the seemingly certain very strong +ENSO setting in as we speak and will peak sometime around New Year's this winter. As a DC snow weenie, I'm very excited, but of course it's way too far out to tell. I also don't have any idea which ENSO forecasting products are any good, so I'd like to pick up some pointers on what tools to lean on and to ignore.

 

[KevinH]

Isn't THIS El Niño supposed to be the strongest ever?

 

[JPWX]

I would expect the Deep South and even Gulf Coast to get in on a few significant winter storms upcoming winter

 

[CheeselandSkies]

It's progged to be so strong, Mark Sudduth is calling it "El Hombre."

 

[akt1985]

Watch out for possible EF3 plus tornadoes in Florida this winter during the Super El Niño.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

super ninos have been associated with mor active secondary seasons last one was 2015 and that had a p gnarly sec season with several Ef4s in the Christmas time frame, so def a good idea to watch how our super nino unfolds

 

[akt1985]

Ryan Hall says there is no such thing as a Super El Nino

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Ryan Hall says there is no such thing as a Super El Nino

lmaoo thats funny

 

[N0mz]

FWIW these are the CPC's projections. I'm not sure if the CPC tends to be conservative or whatever.

 

[N0mz]

The 1877-1878 El Niño, which holds the record at +2.8C according to reanalysis, killed around 50 million worldwide, 3% of the world population at the time, or the equivalent of 250 million today. Although food and water security are much better today, we may not reach 2.8, and the 1877-78 event was possibly aided by other teleconnections; a +2.5C or greater El Niño is a significant humanitarian event.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Also if this El Niño becomes super which looks likely could cause winter overall be warmer most places

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

super ninos have been associated with mor active secondary seasons last one was 2015 and that had a p gnarly sec season with several Ef4s in the Christmas time frame, so def a good idea to watch how our super nino unfolds

Look for a active fall severe season that goes wilh strong Nino s per past