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Severe Weather Threat - October 25/26th, 2025

CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A SECONDARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS
CENTRAL INTO EAST/COASTAL TX, AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A 40-50+ KT
MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVERSPREADS
THIS AREA. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITH THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY. LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH ANY
SUSTAINED SUPERCELL. WITH TIME THIS EVENING, OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS
SHOULD ENCOURAGE ANOTHER MCS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX AND
VICINITY. SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BECOME A GREATER CONCERN
AS THIS MCS DEVELOPS EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF LA OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT FORECAST TO BE
OVERLY STRONG, A FEW TORNADOES STILL APPEAR POSSIBLE BOTH WITH THE
INITIAL SUPERCELLS AND EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE MCS. GIVEN
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ROBUST
DESTABILIZATION WILL STRUGGLE WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT, SEVERE
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN CONFINED/ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL/EAST TX INTO LA WITH THIS UPDATE.
 
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Kds86z said:
Oh yeah? Why does SE TX do that
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SE TX outbreaks are a bit harder to come by due to strong, moist air (evident in the sounding with 75/72) and with strong instability, and strong forcing, it usually set ups one or two organized cells and the rest are just mergerfests that never organise. Also note the lack of strong dry air (where your dew point parcel zinks out in the upper levels)

From my time lurking on the forum, Fred Gossage once said that you'd rather a setup with close temperatures and dews and have strong dry air in the upper levels allowing for maybe some easier organization in even a crowded environment. This was likely a partial factor in how 5/24/11 produced high end, violent tornadoes despite a lot of clustering settling on those cells.

If you had 85/66 with dry air, it's very less favorable for tornadoes unless your mesoscale stuff comes in. Today, we have a strong moist layer with not much dry air in the making, that will make it much harder for cells to drop tornadoes. Apologies for the long winded discussion lol
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
SE TX outbreaks are a bit harder to come by due to strong, moist air (evident in the sounding with 75/72) and with strong instability, and strong forcing, it usually set ups one or two organized cells and the rest are just mergerfests that never organise. Also note the lack of strong dry air (where your dew point parcel zinks out in the upper levels)

From my time lurking on the forum, Fred Gossage once said that you'd rather a setup with close temperatures and dews and have strong dry air in the upper levels allowing for maybe some easier organization in even a crowded environment. This was likely a partial factor in how 5/24/11 produced high end, violent tornadoes despite a lot of clustering settling on those cells.

If you had 85/66 with dry air, it's very less favorable for tornadoes unless your mesoscale stuff comes in. Today, we have a strong moist layer with not much dry air in the making, that will make it much harder for cells to drop tornadoes. Apologies for the long winded discussion lol
Click to expand...
Hey now, no apologies for a great explanation. Appreciate it
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
SE TX outbreaks are a bit harder to come by due to strong, moist air (evident in the sounding with 75/72) and with strong instability, and strong forcing, it usually set ups one or two organized cells and the rest are just mergerfests that never organise. Also note the lack of strong dry air (where your dew point parcel zinks out in the upper levels)

From my time lurking on the forum, Fred Gossage once said that you'd rather a setup with close temperatures and dews and have strong dry air in the upper levels allowing for maybe some easier organization in even a crowded environment. This was likely a partial factor in how 5/24/11 produced high end, violent tornadoes despite a lot of clustering settling on those cells.

If you had 85/66 with dry air, it's very less favorable for tornadoes unless your mesoscale stuff comes in. Today, we have a strong moist layer with not much dry air in the making, that will make it much harder for cells to drop tornadoes. Apologies for the long winded discussion lol
Click to expand...
Very well said. Being so close to the coast, you’re going to have a heavily saturated profile more often than not. We saw what that did on 3/15 this year.
 
ColdFront said:
Very well said. Being so close to the coast, you’re going to have a heavily saturated profile more often than not. We saw what that did on 3/15 this year.
Click to expand...
And there was also a bit of lacking dry air that day too. It didn't completely limit the day and some mesoscale factors probably compensated for the lack of dry air in that small corridor of supercells. That day did better then i expected looking back. Very deep moist layer and not much dry air yet still dropped two violent intensity tornadoes at least. Mesoscale must've compensated locally
 
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