Severe Weather Threat - October 18th 2025

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

I will take this as a opportunity to start my very first thread, and also pave the way for further discussion given the 5% tornado risk has been massively extended in the latest outlook! Several QLCS tornadoes appear possible tomorrow with how decently sized this 5% is.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Nice weatherman leprechaun great analysis and cheers

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

I completely agree with Brad here but didn't want to discredit the SPC obviously, they know best and they're probably seeing something we're not. Thermodynamics completely go against a lot of the shear tomorrow, and even models have closed down on what I mentioned about Mississippi/Alabama with a lot trending to a barely sub-severe/heavy rain type event with the shear keeping a weak line intact. hrrr is fairly bullish on tornado potential into the early morning hours, but those low level shear profiles will not be used thankfully

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

I completely agree with Brad here but didn't want to discredit the SPC obviously, they know best and they're probably seeing something we're not. Thermodynamics completely go against a lot of the shear tomorrow, and even models have closed down on what I mentioned about Mississippi/Alabama with a lot trending to a barely sub-severe/heavy rain type event with the shear keeping a weak line intact. hrrr is fairly bullish on tornado potential into the early morning hours, but those low level shear profiles will not be used thankfully

I am not seeing anyone mention a bullish tornado risk?

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

I am not seeing anyone mention a bullish tornado risk?

I've seen plenty on some platforms getting a bit overhead for the tornado potential, but I've learned to not care too much about that. I mentioned the HRRR was bullish on it, didn't reference to anyone else

 

[Kds86z]

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Bang on, and i actually do agree this is the one area of potential i am eying. Temp/dew spreads and high lcls will make it tough but the low level shear is JUST there. This is where something drops tomorrow for me

 

[Kds86z]

Bang on, and i actually do agree this is the one area of potential i am eying. Temp/dew spreads and high lcls will make it tough but the low level shear is JUST there. This is where something drops tomorrow for me

Oh ok I see.

 

[Kds86z]

Gonna expand the date to 19th @WeathermanLeprechaun ? In case something happens overnight may be good idea.

 

[MichelleH]

That 2% risk now includes more of Alabama than it did this morning.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Gonna expand the date to 19th @WeathermanLeprechaun ? In case something happens overnight may be good idea.

The thermos overnight generally don't support much happening, despite strong low level shear in place. Seems like elevated crapvection will limit svr threat overnight. If something changes, I'll see, but for now, i think the 18th should do.

 

[Kds86z]

The thermos overnight generally don't support much happening, despite strong low level shear in place. Seems like elevated crapvection will limit svr threat overnight. If something changes, I'll see, but for now, i think the 18th should do.

Okydoke

 

[Kds86z]

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

I'm honestly not sure what this post implies. The site itself is just experimental and darker colours for X = more attention. It does a good job at determining the areas of interest but not the severity.

 

[ColdFront]

I'm honestly not sure what this post implies. The site itself is just experimental and darker colours for X = more attention. It does a good job at determining the areas of interest but not the severity.

Exactly. Severe does not always equal tornados. It can be wind, hail etc.

 

[SilentShadow87]

I get that people like to see clear photos/videos of photogenic tornadoes, but straight-line winds can be just as dangerous. It bugs me when people downplay an event because it's "just" straight-line winds. The 2022 derecho killed 12 people in Ontario, and was either the strongest or second-strongest derecho ever recorded...on a day with a 15% wind risk.

On a lighter note, it's been long enough since there's been a solid severe weather day that I'm following this one for sure. It's been a really slow couple of months and I'd be happy to just watch some thunderstorms lol.