Severe Weather Threat - October 18th/19th 2025

[Kds86z]

RMS. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE RELATIVELY GENTLE FORCING FOR STORMS
IN THE SHORT TERM AND A FAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR VECTOR,
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT LEAST SEMI-DISCRETE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, AND THIS MAY RESULT IN A GREATER TORNADO THREAT WHEN THE
SHEAR IMPROVES LATER IN THE DAY.

..SUPINIE/THOMPSON.. 10/18/2025

 

[JPWX]

So Surface Based CAPE is exceeding expectations by more than what the latest 17z HRRR analyzed. No surprise there.

 

[Ozonelayer]

These guys popped up ahead of the main semi-discrete line. Might be problematic later on if they can mature.

 

[joshoctober16]

might be something near pleasant hope

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Unwarned tornado otg near Pleasant Hope, MO!

 

[Ozonelayer]

Tornado possibly OTG around Pleasent Hope, MO.

 

[MichelleH]

Getting more and more concerned a lot of people are going to be caught off guard tonight.

 

[Ozonelayer]

This thing bears watching. Wonder if the line nudges it enough to cause it to drop.

 

[JPWX]

I would definitely expand that 5% tornado probability eastward into western/north Alabama and middle Tennessee

 

[Ozonelayer]

View attachment 47499
View attachment 47500

This thing bears watching. Wonder if the line nudges it enough to cause it to drop.

To add on to this, this is it a scan or two later:

 

[MichelleH]

I would definitely expand that 5% tornado probability eastward into western/north Alabama and middle Tennessee

Agreed.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[joshoctober16]

this supercell is really starting to hook up.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Lil prefrontal thing near Hot Springs Village has a decent rot on it and a lil hook.

 

[AJS]

Definitely looks like it’s hooking. Wouldn’t be surprised to see this cell spin up a brief tornado shortly.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Strong mid level meso at Prescott, AR. Will see how the lower levels looks as it approaches radar.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

View attachment 47503
Lil prefrontal thing near Hot Springs Village has a decent rot on it and a lil hook.

Just got tor pos tag on it...

 

[joshoctober16]

tornado warning.

 

[TornadoFan]

 

[Kds86z]

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