Severe Weather Threat November 1-3

[Kds86z]

Well shoot looks like we had a tornado last night.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

I imagine that will extend to DFW area soon

Hard to say but it’s highly up to the spc or nws

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

The supercell hook echo near Robert Lee looks impressive can’t see if it’s rotating by velocity or srv

 

[Kds86z]

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Robert Lee tx supercell looks impressive but weak rotation

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

No I think it’s showing inflow on velocity and srv also latched onto a ofb or boundary

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

The environment in okc has improved

Wind profile is straight out of the south then southwesterly for the hodograph Strong curvature in low levels with still veering and backing in mid levels but better and also wonkiness in upper levels shear and srh looks good in 0-1 and 0-6 km srh looks good in effective inflow layer but 25 knots of shear Steep moisture up to 825 with pocket of dry air above it lapse rates are poor also fully destabilized with skinny instability

 

[Kds86z]

EF1	Keyes	Cimarron	OK	36.8059°N 102.2592°W	04:59–05:03	0.61 mi (0.98 km)	25 yd (23 m)
A tornado touched down on the southwestern side of Keyes, snapping several tree branches and shifting an anchored mobile home a few feet off its original position. Continuing northeast, the tornado lifted an empty grain silo and carried or rolled it approximately 100 yd (91 m)across a field while also snapping the top of a power pole. The tornado then damaged the roof of a community center, collapsed one of its walls, destroyed an awning connecting two buildings, and broke another power pole. Farther northeast, a carport awning was damaged, and several tree branches and a softwood tree were snapped. The most significant damage occurred in northeastern Keyes, where an old pool hall collapsed and a nearby building lost its roof, resulting in the collapse of an exterior wall. The tornado also damaged a large barn-like structure before dissipating.

​

 

[Atlantic]

The environment in okc has improved

Wind profile is straight out of the south then southwesterly for the hodograph Strong curvature in low levels with still veering and backing in mid levels but better and also wonkiness in upper levels shear and srh looks good in 0-1 and 0-6 km srh looks good in effective inflow layer but 25 knots of shear Steep moisture up to 825 with pocket of dry air above it lapse rates are poor also fully destabilized with skinny instability

Can’t rule out a few tornadoes at least, before the threat ends

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Yeah

 

[Kds86z]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

10%/ENH dropped at 01Z. Convective mode hasn't cooperated.

 

[Kds86z]

10%/ENH dropped at 01Z. Convective mode hasn't cooperated.

Indeed, never even got a Max or Ryan live stream lol.

 

[Kds86z]

Can’t rule out a few tornadoes at least, before the threat ends

Wouldn’t be shocked to see a QCLS tornado threat ramp up but.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

35-45 llj now

 

[N0mz]

Regarding today, I don't really see much happening in the way of sigtors. A very diffuse dryline isn't gonna get discrete cells to pop early, and shear vectors relative to the initiating dryline are terrible.

... yep

 

[Kds86z]

Tornado possible tag