Kds86z
Member
Severe weather returns right as November kicks off. Tomorrow could feature some supercells and tornadoes in the Southwest. Monday could be more significant and has uptrended a bit possibly extending to Tuesday/Wednesday and will monitor to add dates. For Monday guidance shows a little more of a compact Low now over Western Kansas. The influence of a SubTropical Jet will increase the Amplified 500mb Flow. LLJ may crank up after dark.
1230 PM CDT SAT OCT 31
THE LEAD SPEED MAX WILL CROSS SOUTHERN AZ SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NM SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THE PAST FEW DAYS, PLUS AN EXPANSIVE SWATH OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE, WILL TEND TO LIMIT LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SOURCE REGION. HOWEVER, UNUSUALLY MOIST PROFILES WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST WEAK BUOYANCY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOUTHERN AZ INTO NM, AND THE BUOYANCY IS UNLIKELY TO BE TIED VERY STRONGLY TO THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. AS SUCH, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BANDS OF CONVECTION TO ACCOMPANY THE EJECTING SPEED MAX SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BOTH ACROSS AZ AND ESPECIALLY NM. WIND PROFILES WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH LONG HODOGRAPHS AND WEAKLY BUOYANT, MOIST PROFILES, SIMILAR TO COOL SEASON SEVERE EVENTS IN THE SOUTHEAST. WILL EXPAND THE MRGL RISK FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SEVERE
OUTFLOW GUSTS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES, AND A SLGT RISK UPGRADE IS A POSSIBILITY IN LATER UPDATES ACROSS NM.
1230 PM CDT SAT OCT 31
THE LEAD SPEED MAX WILL CROSS SOUTHERN AZ SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NM SUNDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION THE PAST FEW DAYS, PLUS AN EXPANSIVE SWATH OF MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE, WILL TEND TO LIMIT LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SOURCE REGION. HOWEVER, UNUSUALLY MOIST PROFILES WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST WEAK BUOYANCY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM SOUTHERN AZ INTO NM, AND THE BUOYANCY IS UNLIKELY TO BE TIED VERY STRONGLY TO THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. AS SUCH, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BANDS OF CONVECTION TO ACCOMPANY THE EJECTING SPEED MAX SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, BOTH ACROSS AZ AND ESPECIALLY NM. WIND PROFILES WILL BE QUITE STRONG WITH LONG HODOGRAPHS AND WEAKLY BUOYANT, MOIST PROFILES, SIMILAR TO COOL SEASON SEVERE EVENTS IN THE SOUTHEAST. WILL EXPAND THE MRGL RISK FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SEVERE
OUTFLOW GUSTS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES, AND A SLGT RISK UPGRADE IS A POSSIBILITY IN LATER UPDATES ACROSS NM.
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