Severe Weather Threat November 1-3

[Kds86z]

 

[N0mz]

As noted by SPC in the d2 outlook, the height falls across the risk area are substantial, which could make up for a pretty diffuse dryline.

 

[eep]

The QLCS in northeast NM is really starting to pick up some rotation. I'd watch that area northwest of Rosebud.

 

[Kds86z]

LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED WITH A SMALL LINEAR SEGMENT NEAR TUCUMCARI, NM. THIS HAS OCCURRED AS CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED WITHIN THE AXIS OF GREATER MUCAPE ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER. TO THE EAST OF THIS ACTIVITY, MOISTURE HAS REMAINED IN THE LOW 60S F WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ACTUALLY INCREASING BY A DEGREE OR TWO F OVER THE LAST HOUR. THIS MODEST WARMING COUPLED WITH COOLING ALOFT HAS ALLOWED DESTABILIZATION TO SPREAD EASTWARD THIS
EVENING. LINEAR SEGMENTS THAT CAN INTENSIFY WILL MOVE WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR--VAD DATA FROM KFDX AND KAMA
SHOW 0-500 M SRH OF 300-350 M2/S2. QLCS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
SUPERCELL TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED EVEN WITH MODEST CONVECTION GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS HOW FAR SOUTH STRONGER CONVECTION CAN FORM AS MID-LEVEL ASCENT IS WEAKER WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT.

..WENDT.. 11/02/2026

 

[eep]

Tornado warning for Porter NM. Looks like a sort of embedded supe.

 

[Kds86z]

.

 

[eep]

There might be a tornado with that Tor-W.

EDIT: Right as I post velocity downtrends a bit.

 

[eep]

Cell is tornado warned again for Strip Crossing TX.

EDIT: Started to downtrend on velo the moment it was warned lol.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[eep]

That Channing TX cell looks very interesting.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

Day 1

THE CONVECTIVE MODE IS THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS EVENT. IT SEEMS
POSSIBLE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL LINE OUT QUICKLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON, AND THAT DISCRETE CELL FORMATION WILL BE MINIMIZED. EVEN
SO, WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
LIKELY SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH VIGOROUS
UPDRAFTS ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED LINES AND POTENTIALLY
SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. THE LATEST RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN KANSAS SUGGEST
THAT 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 50 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH SOME DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IS PRESENT, THE STRONGER COMPONENT WILL BE SPEED INCREASES
WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOW-LEVELS. NEAR THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET,
0-3 KM STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE 250 TO 300
M2/S2 RANGE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS AND
WITH ROTATING ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS. SEVERE
WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE LINE
SEGMENTS, ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING STRUCTURES. A GREATER TORNADO
THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE ACROSS OKLAHOMA OR SOUTHEAST KANSAS, IF A
CLUSTER OF DISCRETE CELLS CAN PERSIST INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING
AS A LARGER-SCALE LINE SEGMENT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MOIST
SECTOR, REACHING WESTERN MISSOURI AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND
MIDNIGHT. SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A QLCS TORNADO THREAT WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS LINE.

..TEXAS

SOUTHWESTERLY CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS
MUCH OF TEXAS, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM, AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WARM. A CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF
TEXAS INTO AFTERNOON. THIS CAP WILL LIKELY WEAKEN DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER PARTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. A CONVECTIVE BAND, WITH A MIXED
MODE, IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
BY EARLY EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FORECAST BAND BY 00Z, SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 60S F, WITH MLCAPE
REACHING THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG UPDRAFTS AND SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE
OF THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL CREATE MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE
AXIS OF INSTABILITY. THIS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH
CELLS THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE. INTENSE LINE SEGMENTS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED WITH CELLS THAT CONGEAL. SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY TO
MID EVENING. THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED IN
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET.

 

[eep]

Probably good tonight seems like a nothingburger, given the timing of the event.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Stuff breaking up the whole night ended the svr threat. Amarillo launched a observed that any QLCS would've taken serious advantage of. We move onto whatever today is. Weird, odd, setup with subsidence and all sorts. Best banks are cells before meridional flow causes upscale or you go for the prefrontal route. Might be a bit warm aloft with subsidence. Not a highly optimistic look to say the least