Severe Weather Threat - May 6, 2024

[Wind Driven Coconut]

I will say that there’s a good number of well educated forecasters (Nixon, Leitmann, and others) posting thoughts on yesterday’s storm evolution out in the bird app. I’ve been following severe weather since the early 2000’s and it’s refreshing to see the open mindedness that yesterday did not go as expected and a desire to understand why. There was a huge bust (legit bust) many years ago - 2008 maybe (??) where it felt like everyone just moved on to the next event. The more we learn about why a forecast pans out differently than expected, the better the forecasting becomes. Hopefully yesterday is one that is studied just as much as the big outbreaks that do produce as expected.

 

[jiharris0220]

I think the Barnsdall tornado negated a lot of the usual tearing of the SPC/NWS limb from limb that we usually see with these underperformances.

 

[Clancy]

I will say that there’s a good number of well educated forecasters (Nixon, Leitmann, and others) posting thoughts on yesterday’s storm evolution out in the bird app. I’ve been following severe weather since the early 2000’s and it’s refreshing to see the open mindedness that yesterday did not go as expected and a desire to understand why. There was a huge bust (legit bust) many years ago - 2008 maybe (??) where it felt like everyone just moved on to the next event. The more we learn about why a forecast pans out differently than expected, the better the forecasting becomes. Hopefully yesterday is one that is studied just as much as the big outbreaks that do produce as expected.

Understanding when things don't go expected is unbelievably important, a basic tenant of science, and key to understanding the next threat. At the same time, I'm seeing people conflating that curiosity with mindless calls of events busting. One is actual inquiry and the other is just disgruntled blabbing. As others have said, continued analysis of yesterday's event will be worth watching and I'll be interested to see what comes of it.

 

[Kds86z]

I see fatality count is 1, was reported 2.

 

[Clancy]

Additional input from Nixon and Leitman. Aside from previously discussed issues observable from soundings, slowed trough ejection might've been limited intensification. Interestingly, Trey has mentioned a few times that slower trough ejection can be favorable to some setups, more or less giving storms more time to be in the OWS. All likelihood still that there was a mosaic of thermodynamic and kinematic issues, perhaps some we don't even properly understand, that led to yesterday's outcome. Not entirely convinced by the responsibility of poor LLLRs either, as the storms that struggled most were located in the better LRs, versus the Barnsdall storm, which had pretty measly ones (the evolution of that cell within just a few scans is still rather spooky). A lot of questions, not too many answers.

 

[jiharris0220]

The legendary chaser dude himself commentary regarding post SVR event discussions. Describes it pretty much perfectly.

 

[andyhb]

The damage in the second video in this post is pretty intense.

 

[Tanner]

The damage in the second video in this post is pretty intense.

Yeah, I would need a closer view, but if that's a home in the second video, yikes. Also note the potentially intense tree damage in the field downstream.

 

[jiharris0220]

Another perspective of the same general area.

 

[Tanner]

Another perspective of the same general area.

What a grinder.

 

[andyhb]

Another perspective of the same general area.

Is that looking NE initially (downwind of Barnsdall) or SW (upwind of Barnsdall)?

 

[TH2002]

Is that looking NE initially (downwind of Barnsdall) or SW (upwind of Barnsdall)?

It is looking in this direction

 

[andyhb]

 

[andyhb]

Barnsdall tornado EF4.

 

[Maxis_s]

That was fast...
Makes sense considering some extreme tree damage in some areas.

 

[OHWX97]

It’s been 11 years since Oklahoma experienced multiple violent tornadoes in a single year.

 

[Equus]

Color me surprised given construction, tree damage certainly seems extreme though

This would have been a very very ugly day if things had played out as expected seeing how strong the one significant tornado that happened managed to be

 

[Maxis_s]

Color me surprised given construction, tree damage certainly seems extreme though

This would have been a very very ugly day if things had played out as expected seeing how strong the one significant tornado that happened managed to be

Absolutely. This only underperformed (not a bust!) because storms didn't organize. If they did, like this one cell did, they would have unleashed havoc.

 

[TornadoFan]

It's crazy that this is just a preliminary rating.

 

[vanni9283]

That was fast...
Makes sense considering some extreme tree damage in some areas.
View attachment 26691

Surprising considering I don't think most tree damage gets rated higher than EF3. Might need to take a look at the EF-scale DI's again.