Severe Weather Threat - May 6, 2024

[Clancy]

Rather faint, but tornado is OTG; via KFOR.

 

[wx_guy]

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 663

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[Tanner]

KFOR has a wedge

tight velocity couplet

 

[UncleJuJu98]

KFOR has a wedge

Which storm?

 

[Clancy]

Which storm?

Douglas cell.

 

[Maxis_s]

Uhh... Cool colors! That's all I can understand from this.

 

[cincywx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0663
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 PM CDT MON MAY 06 2024

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 189...

VALID 070043Z - 070215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 189 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...AN UPTICK IN STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED THROUGH
AND BEYOND 9 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST CORRIDOR OF SUPERCELLS HAS
BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM WEST-CENTRAL INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OK. MIDLEVEL
MESOCYCLONES WITH THE CELLS ACROSS BLAINE AND KINGFISHER COUNTY HAVE
INTENSIFIED THIS EVENING AS THEY HAVE MOVED INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR
70 F), STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY, AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW/SHEAR AS NOTED ON THE KTLX AND KVNX VWPS. THE CELL OVER
GARFIELD COUNTY EARLIER PRODUCED A TORNADO, AND TORNADO POTENTIAL
WITH THE OTHER STORMS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WILL INCREASE AS THEY MOVE
EASTWARD THIS EVENING.

THE 00Z OUN SOUNDING DEPICTS A VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT, WITH MLCAPE IN
EXCESS OF 3500 J/KG, EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF AROUND 60 KT, AND 0-1 KM SRH
IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2. LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING, BECOMING EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG TO INTENSE TORNADOES. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY THIS EVENING IS
THE CLUSTER STORM MODE THAT HAS DEVELOPED, BUT THE ONGOING CELL
SOUTH OF ENID AND THE TRAILING CELL OVER CUSTER COUNTY WILL BOTH
HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO MOVE THROUGH A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
THROUGH 9 PM CDT.

..DEAN.. 05/07/2024

 

[Maxis_s]

View attachment 26541
Uhh... Cool colors! That's all I can understand from this.

\
KTLX looks cleaner, I recommend that people use it instead.

 

[TornadoFan]

Val Castor has a tornado

 

[wx_guy]

Update

SPC Day 1 Outlook

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[Clancy]

Satellite around the main wedge on KFOR stream.

 

[TornadoFan]

Custer City storm getting an inflow notch

 

[Clancy]

Douglas storm now TORR.

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
756 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

OKC047-103-070130-
/O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0104.000000T0000Z-240507T0130Z/
Noble OK-Garfield OK-
756 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR WESTERN
NOBLE AND SOUTHEASTERN GARFIELD COUNTIES...

At 756 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Covington, moving
east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Emergency management confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

Locations impacted include...
Covington, Douglas, Lucien, and Hayward.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 182 and 201.

 

[Muwx]

Just...don't...the high risk timeline was always after dark. It has yet to get in its prime.

The event is over for the northwest third of the high risk. The middle third is a massive blob of storms. We’ll see what the southeast third does.

 

[OHWX97]

Might wanna keep an eye on Winfield, KS. Seems to be something trying to wrap up southwest of the city.

 

[Thanksgivingbrown]

Tog near Douglas

 

[Clancy]

Will need to also watch these storms out ahead of the congealing QLCS.

 

[TH2002]

Abilene, KS under a TOR

 

[notsoencrypted]

 

[Brice W]

Abilene, KS under a TOR

That storm is one to watch, it got split off from the line.