Severe Weather Threat - May 6, 2024

[TornadoFan17]

So what are the potential limiting factors, if any, that are present with this setup for tonight?

 

[cincywx]

Might be an error, this shows some capping in place still.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

So what are the potential limiting factors, if any, that are present with this setup for tonight?

Cap is stout, and Oklahoma can be famous for its blue sky busts, but as the temps rises and moisture advects northward it should erode. I don’t think Cap is going to keep this one held back. Just something to keep in mind and I’d defer to Andy or Fred on that one

 

[warneagle]

So what are the potential limiting factors, if any, that are present with this setup for tonight?

The main question now is how many storms fire in the peak parameter space. A lot of the CAMs haven’t shown a ton of convection especially south of OKC but I’m not sure that’s actually realistic. Other than that, not much. There’s a reason they issued a high risk; this isn’t a conditional threat, it’s just a matter of resolving the mesoscale details.

 

[NorthGaWeather]

Cap is stout, and Oklahoma can be famous for its blue sky busts, but as the temps rises and moisture advects northward it should erode. I don’t think Cap is going to keep this one held back. Just something to keep in mind and I’d defer to Andy or Fred on that one

This is what OUN posted in chat. Cap is largely gone.

 

[Tempestas Tonitrua]

This is what OUN posted in chat. Cap is largely gone.

View attachment 26417

Thanks for sharing that

 

[weunice]

Earlier in this thread it was confirmed that the cap is not going to inhibit this.

 

[Equus]

Probably won't be all that many cells developing in the high risk which is kind of the problem, things should be pretty widely spaced with lots of room for just a handful of supercells dropping long tracked tornadoes; getting the balance right is tricky but if the cap is largely gone in weak forcing, could hit the sweet spot for just a few intense updrafts especially if mesoscale factors and 850mb temps cooperate

 

[JBishopwx]

Also per chat, PDS Watch is forcoming.

 

[warneagle]

Earlier in this thread it was confirmed that the cap is not going to inhibit this.

Yeah that wasn’t the issue, it was the contradiction between what OUN was saying and what the sounding analysis showed right now

 

[warneagle]

Probably won't be all that many cells developing in the high risk which is kind of the problem, things should be pretty widely spaced with lots of room for just a handful of supercells dropping long tracked tornadoes; getting the balance right is tricky but if the cap is largely gone in weak forcing, could hit the sweet spot for just a few intense updrafts especially if mesoscale factors and 850mb temps cooperate

Yeah this seems like the most likely scenario (and it’s what most of the CAMs have been depicting). Also why I don’t think a 45% upgrade is necessary since the expected amount of storm coverage probably doesn’t justify it.

 

[nativetoalaska]

Don't know if this has been posted here previously, but McConnell AFB in Wichita relocated aircraft in anticipation of severe weather.

https://www.newsweek.com/air-force-aircraft-relocated-severe-weather-threat-kansas-1897618

 

[UncleJuJu98]

 

[Equus]

Norman may be in exactly the right environment and time frame to get a legendary textbook outbreak 00z sounding, I hope they're able to get one off ahead of the storms

 

[SilentShadow87]

That's the most classic looking setup I've seen in a while...

 

[Jacob]

The action in NW Kansas is becoming more cellular over the past hour. Starting to get some distinct supercells showing up.

 

[cincywx]

I'm by no means an expert, but I have to say: I did a double take when I initially saw this sounding. Up to nearly 30kts of surface [0-1km] shear & north of 200m/s^2 of surface [0-1km] SRH? The morning model runs were suggesting notably weaker amounts of both at this time. It may not mean all that much in the grand scheme of things, but it is something that caught my attention.

 

[TH2002]

The cells east of Utica and south of WaKeeney (Kansas) are indeed already trying to spin. Gonna be a long day...

 

[TornadoFan17]

1st warning of the day

 

[Clancy]

SD of all places with a TOR.