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Severe Weather Threat - May 6, 2024

jiharris0220 said:
If there was abundant mid level dry air or weak instability this would be the case, unfortunately not remotely a possibility
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SilentShadow87 said:
I've been out of the loop on this one to be honest, what's the timeframe for the main storms looking like?
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Initiation around 3-4PM CDT but this is gonna drag on into the night and the LLJ is really supposed to ramp up this evening.
 
Tempestas Tonitrua said:
Jeff Duda (not sure what his specialized field of study is in meteorology but he does have a PhD) says this event may actually have a better chance of verifying as a wind driven high risk than tornado due to the forcing at play. Too strong in Kansas, too weak in Oklahoma. Not exactly sure what models he is getting that from but something to keep in mind failure mode wise I guess.
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If i got a check every time Jeff Duda nit-picked an upcoming event to the point where it sounds like a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency is imminent, I’d be a rich man. I respect him, but I’ve learned to tune him out over the years.

Most recently he did it right before Sulphur-Marietta. It’s what he does.
 
warneagle said:
Idk, I kind of get it from the perspective of the instructors if there’s nothing going on at that time of day since that would really mess with their schedules for getting final grades in. Bringing back some PTSD from my college teaching days.
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OU obviously has a great meteorology program. If I pursue a Master's, I'd consider OU in a heartbeat.

If OU is like my university, their exams are almost over. Yes, cancelling an exam is a logistical nightmare for both teachers and students, but it's the obvious choice if lives are at risk. My university does 7-10pm night exams. If OU does something similar, and the threat does not miraculously weaken over the next couple of hours, I almost feel like they would have to cancel their night exams.
 
buckeye05 said:
If i got a check every time Jeff Duda nit-picked an upcoming event to the point where it sounds like a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency is imminent, I’d be a rich man. I respect him, but I’ve learned to tune him out over the years.
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Good to know. Thank you. I never heard of him but he is the only one I have heard say this.
 
buckeye05 said:
If i got a check every time Jeff Duda nit-picked an upcoming event to the point where it sounds like a Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency is imminent, I’d be a rich man. I respect him, but I’ve learned to tune him out over the years.
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I didn’t know he did that often lol - I’ll definitely take that into account going forward especially quoting him. Thanks for the heads up
 
TornadoFan17 said:
OU obviously has a great meteorology program. If I pursue a Master's, I'd consider OU in a heartbeat.

If OU is like my university, their exams are almost over. Yes, cancelling an exam is a logistical nightmare for both teachers and students, but it's the obvious choice if lives are at risk. My university does 7-10pm night exams. If OU does something similar, and the threat does not miraculously weaken over the next couple of hours, I almost feel like they would have to cancel their night exams.
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Oh yeah if we’re talking like 7-10 pm then that’s a no-brainer. I was thinking earlier in the day.
 
TornadoFan17 said:
OU obviously has a great meteorology program. If I pursue a Master's, I'd consider OU in a heartbeat.

If OU is like my university, their exams are almost over. Yes, cancelling an exam is a logistical nightmare for both teachers and students, but it's the obvious choice if lives are at risk. My university does 7-10pm night exams. If OU does something similar, and the threat does not miraculously weaken over the next couple of hours, I almost feel like they would have to cancel their night exams.
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Everyone complaining is saying 7:30-9:30. Literally possibly peak threat time for the OKC Metro.
 
Jeez...you don't see local area emergencies for upcoming severe weather very often.

...PREPARE NOW for DANGEROUS storms TODAY and OVERNIGHT...

The following message is transmitted at the request of Oklahoma
Department of Emergency Management.

A severe weather outbreak is expected today and tonight across a
large portion of Oklahoma including many areas recently impacted
by severe storms and tornadoes.

While not everyone will see severe storms today any storms that
develop today and tonight will quickly become dangerous and
capable of producing destructive hail up to softball size
damaging wind gusts in excess of 80 mph and tornadoes some of
which may be strong.

Severe storms will be possible in Murray County as early as 3 PM
this afternoon with the risk of severe storms continuing through
the night and ending by 2 AM Tuesday.

Avoid driving to shelter during the storm. Plan NOW to be near
sturdy shelter BEFORE storms arrive. Have multiple ways to receive
severe weather warnings including ways that will wake you from
sleeping. Ensure Wireless Emergency Alerts are enabled on your
mobile device. Keep mobile devices and power banks charged.

If Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm warnings are issued for your
area seek shelter immediately in an interior room of the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Mobile homes and vehicles are NOT
sufficient shelter for tornadoes and destructive wind storms.
NEVER park under overpasses during severe weather.

Visit ready.gov/tornado for tips to keep your family safe during
severe storms.

Follow National Weather Service Norman on social media for the
latest forecast and Murray County Emergency Management for
information on local response and recovery.
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Mesoscale Discussion 0649
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 AM CDT Mon May 06 2024

Areas affected...southern KS...western/central OK...and eastern TX
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 061647Z - 061845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...PDS Tornado Watch issuance will be needed ahead of this
portion of the dryline during the early afternoon. At least a few
long-track, discrete supercells are expected, becoming capable of
producing intense (EF3+) tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...16Z surface analysis placed the dryline from near
Garden City, KS to Lubbock, TX, with the Pacific cold front lagging
westward with southern extent in the southern High Plains. Airmass
continues to destabilize ahead of the dryline, with MLCIN becoming
weak into at least western OK and the TX Panhandle where
boundary-layer warming has been more prominent in cloud breaks.

The expectation is for initial dryline/Pacific front development to
occur in southwest KS and build south into the eastern TX
Panhandle/western OK vicinity by late afternoon. Ample low to
deep-layer shear will support several supercells with very large
hail, tornadoes, and severe gusts probable. The impinging of an
intense upper jet from NM into western OK over the next several
hours, along with strengthening of low-level flow this evening, will
yield an increasingly favorable kinematic environment for long-track
and intense supercells capable of significant tornadoes, especially
with southern extent in western/central OK.

..Grams/Smith.. 05/06/2024
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Full disco re: eventual PDS tornado watch
 
TH2002 said:
I think OU is simply betting on the fact that the general public isn't that weather aware... which is a pretty safe bet unfortunately.
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Idk, I can understand keeping campus open when the active threat is still several hours away. Like we had morning classes at Auburn on 4/27/11 and then they cancelled afternoon classes, which made sense since the main threat for us wasn’t until like 7 pm.
 
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