Are temps in the 80s more favorable for violent tornadoes than temps in the 70s?I should mention that up into south central to southeast Kansas, even if the cells on the southern end of the convective band are a bit clustery, there could still be multiple strong to potentially violent tornadoes, similar to what happened in south central Oklahoma back on the late evening of April 27th. The cleaner and fully discrete "classic outbreak" type supercells are more likely to be in north to central Oklahoma (and we'll watch the cap for farther southwest for a loner), but that doesn't negate possibly having multiple strong to even violent tornadoes a few counties farther north of there on the Kansas side if the cells are a bit clustered.
Right. Especially in these cases where dewpoints are near and into the lower 70s and RH below the cloud base is running pretty high, causing RFDs to tend to be warmer and not able to efficiently cold pool on the rear flank or the forward flank, you can have even full-blown EF5s with relatively close storm spacing. It doesn't require cleanly spaced supercells with nothing around one for 50+ miles for a long-lived EF3-EF5 tornado to be able to happen.The 1991 Andover outbreak had a semi discrete storm mode with storms tightly spaced. Obviously though the cells had no problem producing multiple violent tornadoes.
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I have mostly seen dewpoints reaching the upper 60s throughout the area for the most high risk. How does upper 60s dewpoints any different than low 70s dewpoints. Like for instance 77.0°F/72.0°F VS 74.0°F/69.0°F.Right. Especially in these cases where dewpoints are near and into the lower 70s and RH below the cloud base is running pretty high, causing RFDs to tend to be warmer and not able to efficiently cold pool on the rear flank or the forward flank, you can have even full-blown EF5s with relatively close storm spacing. It doesn't require cleanly spaced supercells with nothing around one for 50+ miles for a long-lived EF3-EF5 tornado to be able to happen.
Joplin and the 2011 El Reno tornado are both examples of ef-5 tornadoes occurring while being fully embedded in the forward flank of other cells.Right. Especially in these cases where dewpoints are near and into the lower 70s and RH below the cloud base is running pretty high, causing RFDs to tend to be warmer and not able to efficiently cold pool on the rear flank or the forward flank, you can have even full-blown EF5s with relatively close storm spacing. It doesn't require cleanly spaced supercells with nothing around one for 50+ miles for a long-lived EF3-EF5 tornado to be able to happen.
As we've previously discussed, it's not just about the surface temperature or dewpoint at face value. Instability is about how temperature and dewpoint change vertically with height. That's not an opinion on the matter. That's how basic thermodynamics work as fact with no room for debate or negotiation or disagreement. VERY generically speaking, the warmer the surface temperature, the more room there is for moisture content in the low-levels, and the better chance you have of having higher instability. However, the warmer you get, the higher your dewpoints have to be as well or you will start having higher LCLs and higher cloud bases, which are more favorable for colder RFDs, which lowers the strong/violent tornado threat. Once you start getting temperatures into the lower 80s or higher, you really need those dewpoints to be 65+ (and really, 67+ is better) in order to not have LCLs that are high enough to lower the strong/violent tornado threat. Once you start getting on up into the mid 80s and higher, dewpoints into the 70s start becoming more of a flat out necessity.Are temps in the 80s more favorable for violent tornadoes than temps in the 70s?
I must just second guess myself as I tended to have gotten obsessed with temperatures and dewpoints needed for violent tornadoes considering everything else is in place. Joplin is a very good example as the temperature that day reached 84.0°F and the dewpoint reached 72.0°F. However as the tornado was occurring the temperature was like 68.0°F/69.0°F and the dewpoint was like 65.0°F/66.0°F. Maybe it just boggles my mind on how it works the way it does.I'm not trying to be rude. You're a stand-up dude! I'm always happy to help out and explain things as I am able. I wouldn't be so aggressive here if it wasn't for the last time we had this same conversation back on the Omaha day (but it was violent tornadoes being possible with temps in the 60s then), when you asked me similar questions, instead of trying to understand my answers explaining things, you were too busy trying to argue about it, all the while being proven wrong in real-time.
Thanks for your input Fred. I hope everyone stays safe today.The HRRR certainly has its faults, and sometimes it falls completely on its face altogether. However, it is firmly locked on this high-end violent solution now run after run after run after run after run after run. In 13 years of dealing with the HRRR now, back to the days when it was still experimental, it has usually only done that when it has sniffed out the real deal for whatever it is trying to show.
Type of outbreak | Weak | Minor | Significant | Major | Devastating | Historic | Super |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number of points | 2–6 | 7–10 | 11–29 | 30–79 | 80–119 | 120-249 | 250+ |
Do you know how to read a skew-T diagram? That might help you visualize how instability/CAPE works in relation to surface temperature.I must just second guess myself as I tended to have gotten obsessed with temperatures and dewpoints needed for violent tornadoes considering everything else is in place. Joplin is a very good example as the temperature that day reached 84.0°F and the dewpoint reached 72.0°F. However as the tornado was occurring the temperature was like 68.0°F/69.0°F and the dewpoint was like 65.0°F/66.0°F. Maybe it just boggles my mind on how it works the way it does.
Where are you seeing this?Tornado driven high risk coming next outlook, will include most of OK, including OKC.
Norman WFO posted it in NWSChat a little bit ago that SPC is drawing it up for the forthcoming outlook.Where are you seeing this?