Severe Weather Threat May 17-19, 2025

[treypops]

I just got 200 mph GTG. Anyone else seeing that?

It's been producing readings like that's for a bit.

 

[slenker]

Honestly, I would’ve pulled the trigger on saying 170-205 MPH for the maximum possible intensity here. It’s absolutely justified at this point.

 

[Western_KS_Wx]

It likely won’t make it to any big city before weakening or lifting. Storm just isn’t moving fast enough

At its current pace if it keeps spitting out new, large tornadoes it’ll reach Hutchinson and surrounding areas in about an hour. At this rate nothing would surprise me anymore, thing just keeps reloading.

 

[TornadoFan]

Mesoscale Discussion 0872
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Areas affected...South-central Kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 291...

Valid 190441Z - 190645Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 291 continues.

SUMMARY...A tornado threat will continue across parts of
south-central Kansas over the next couple of hours. A strong tornado
will be likely, and an EF3+ tornado could occur.

DISCUSSION...An intense tornadic supercell is ongoing about 50
statute miles to the west-northwest of Wichita, KS. This storm is
located just to the east of an axis of moderate instability, where
the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. This
supercell is also located just to the southwest of the center of a
50 to 60 knot low-level jet. The low-level jet is creating very
strong low-level shear, which is being sampled by the WSR-88D VWP at
Wichita. This is creating a long looped hodograph and 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity of near 650 m2/s2. This environment will be
favorable for tornadoes, and a EF3+ tornado will be possible. In
addition to the tornado threat, forecast soundings have 700-500 mb
lapse rates near 8 C/km, which will be favorable for large hail.
Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter may also accompany
the more intense cores.

 

[Shakespeare 2016]

View attachment 42455
155-190mph makes a return, Christ almighty.

High-end EF3 to high-end EF4 intensity but I do suspect this tornado is probably an EF5.

 

[Maxis_s]

It's been an incredibly long time since I've seen a tornado have GTG values of over 200mph consistently. One of the most incredible tornadoes I've seen.

 

[snostorm21]

Man this thing does not want to stop

 

[treypops]

Hutchison is downstream and a decent sized town. I hope this thing peters out before it gets there.

 

[TornadoFan]

It just won't weaken

 

[tornado examiner]

Okay maybe it will make it to a big city…
Ugh

 

[snostorm21]

Hutchinson has a population of 40k

 

[zath]

Correlation coefficient has literally been maxed out (.2) for debris for an ungodly amount of time. I can only imagine the kind of damage and ground scaring happening under this thing.

 

[Equus]

It's toward the edge of the instability axis; strong nocturnal capping won't kill it since it has an established self sustaining low level inflow, but running beyond the instability axis eventually will, though perhaps not soon. Also note the insane effective helicity with the strong backing we have after dark

 

[Maxis_s]

Oh sh#t, there's the TORE.

 

[snostorm21]

Tor E

 

[treypops]

TORE now

 

[jiharris0220]

Right now out of every spot on this planet, this would be the last place I would want to be.

 

[slenker]

Abbyville is very small but needs to be in their safe place sooner than ASAP. If it gets hit it’s going to be obliterated.

 

[DanLarsen34]

View attachment 42455
155-190mph makes a return, Christ almighty.

Not to be this person, and it probably doesn’t matter much, but I find the language in this discussion to be too conservative given we’ve seen them use violent tornado language before in similar situations.

The environment this cell is in is as high-end as April 27, 2011, and the signature on radar suggests a possible EF-5.

They would be well within their right to say that violent tornadoes are possible or even likely over the next hour or two.

 

[snostorm21]

Oh my word