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Severe Weather Threat May 17-19, 2025

Gotta love all the kinematics arguments that happen in these threads 2 or 3 hours before the event is supposed to kick off. Every time. I appreciate knowing about potential failure modes, and how the situation is evolving, but a few people seem to not realize that atmospheric conditions can change rapidly, and they interpret current conditions as representative of future conditions.
 
Yeah, he and David Payne and Ryan Hall and others who make up their own products/maps separate from the NWS are really problematic and confuses the public
I honestly like David Payne. I know he can be controversial, but he's better than Mike Morgan/Ryan Hall/Reed Timmer. I think he provides some of the best coverage in the country, not as good as James Spann, but he's up there.
 
The convention you’re talking about is elevated and has been present in Oklahoma since this morning.

And I honestly don’t appreciate these pitiful shots you’re taking at me for no reason at all.

Please try to be mature and don’t clog this thread with this crap, everyone has already seen enough of it with the last thread.
There’s been storms by Woodward since this morning?
 
Already a tornado possible tag on this cell south of Denver International Airport.
View attachment 42217
Makes sense, given the history of tornadoes and landspouts forming due to the various features of the High Plains and the Front Range.
 
I’ve never liked Mike Morgan. Dude literally told the whole metro to drive south as the El Reno tornado was approaching and caused a chaotic traffic jam. Seriously, what an idiot.

Anyway, back on topic.
That was one his questionable moments, but honestly his Moore coverage is incredible to watch. That might be an outlier, but an outlier nonetheless.

Back on topic, though.
 
At this point, all we can do is take a "wait and see" approach, and evaluate things after the fact.


Personally, I would honestly love to see the formulation of that "Enhanced Tornado Favorability" parameter, so that I can see what inputs it uses to make those estimates as well as how well it stacks with what we currently know about tornadogenesis and maintenance. I would also love to see the bias/skill as well, to see how well it performs in actual events.
yeah would be nice to know.

once again would be nice to have its own thread about custom made parameters and stuff.

its a shame there are 0 composite parameters that take into account moister.
 
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