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Severe Weather Threat May 17-19, 2025

Schoeppeya said:
Supercells are surface based storms so I think acting like storms moving into an area of less available surface energy to feed on would have no impact on their intensity would be unwise. That cloud deck along the ks ok border is thick enough it’s actually dropped surface temps a few degrees so it bears watching. That being said, the HRRR keep initiating storms further south and south of that colder pocket so while it may limit the overall even I don’t know that it prevents a potential high end event. We also have a long ways to go before storms fire.
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Again, not sure where you’re seeing this area of less available energy, are you talking about mid eastern Oklahoma, because that’s not the area under the gun today.

North western Oklahoma and western Kansas are the area to watch today. The NWS doesn’t even have the area I’m assuming you’re talking about under a moderate risk.
 
From Reed

Live emergency update with the warm front lifting slowly north and focusing the #tornado threat across Oklahoma including OKC! The tornado threat will also extend north into western and central Kansas, but greater instability is present south
 
Muwx said:
Well see. CU already really bubbling out there and there are a few blips on radar. I would not be surprised if ok goes early
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At this point, all we can do is take a "wait and see" approach, and evaluate things after the fact.

Kds86z said:
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Personally, I would honestly love to see the formulation of that "Enhanced Tornado Favorability" parameter, so that I can see what inputs it uses to make those estimates as well as how well it stacks with what we currently know about tornadogenesis and maintenance. I would also love to see the bias/skill as well, to see how well it performs in actual events.
 
Jbop said:
From Reed

Live emergency update with the warm front lifting slowly north and focusing the #tornado threat across Oklahoma including OKC! The tornado threat will also extend north into western and central Kansas, but greater instability is present south
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I cannot believe I am saying, never thought the day would come, but I agree with Reed. I think Oklahoma might showoff more than initially thought. Still think NW Kansas has a chance to do a thing or two as well. I do not entirely agree with Ryan Hall about today being a " A real 'what a day' day. A you’ll be talking about today all day one day kinda day" or whatever the heck bro is trying to say.
 
It’s already 2pm, only an hour until 3pm and still not a single sign of towering cumulus, once the forcing mechanism arrives expect the dryline to initiate full fledge supercells quickly.

Wether today performs or not depends on how long can dry line supercells remain discrete until the LLJ fully kicks in around 7-8pm.
 
US_Highway15 said:
I cannot believe I am saying, never thought the day would come, but I agree with Reed. I think Oklahoma might showoff more than initially thought. Still think NW Kansas has a chance to do a thing or two as well. I do not entirely agree with Ryan Hall about today being a " A real 'what a day' day. A you’ll be talking about today all day one day kinda day" or whatever the heck bro is trying to say.
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That was weird by Ryan Hall, in response to that HRRR run. He has to know there is more to this than taking CAM runs verbatim and at face value.
 
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