Severe Weather Threat May 17-19, 2025

[ColdFront]

Also can we please get rid of the post is too short? I know that was for the March 15, 2025 outbreak with how cluttered that thread got, but It’s on every thread now.

Agreed. It’s super annoying, but the mods (besides Michelle) are all MIA and don’t seem to check this very often. Everyone has brought it up numerous times and nothing.

 

[tornado examiner]

Are current environment observations lining up with an outbreak or something less?

 

[jiharris0220]

I just don’t buy that. You’re looking at a high end 4/26/91 type outbreak if that were to verify verbatim. I’ve seen the HRRR (which is a very reliable model) do that a few times, mainly 3/15 this year, 5/20/2019 etc and the actual events weren’t anything close to that. The sheer number of discrete cells it’s displaying is a bit overcooked IMO.

Realistically, there’s no reason why it couldn’t do that, and it’s a very possible outcome. The hrrr also is not alone in this outcome, as in, every cam also has a similar solution.

The NWS likely isn’t going high because it’s such a small area of where convection initiates and coverage isn’t exactly widespread.

Their mention of multiple strong to intense tornadoes possible shows they know the ceiling of this event is reachable.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Realistically, there’s no reason why it couldn’t do that, and it’s a very possible outcome. The hrrr also is not alone in this outcome, as in, every cam also has a similar solution.

The NWS likely isn’t going high because it’s such a small area of where convection initiates and coverage isn’t exactly widespread.

Their mention of multiple strong to intense tornadoes possible shows they know the ceiling of this event is reachable.

Great statement in general

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

also some stuff fired by KVNX

 

[TornadoFan]

Also can we please get rid of the post is too short? I know that was for the March 15, 2025 outbreak with how cluttered that thread got, but It’s on every thread now.

Agreed. It's extremely annoying

 

[N0mz]

Honestly I don't really see many/any failure modes left on this thing. I don't think capping will be very extreme today, and we'll likely have more than enough surface heating. That warm sector is marching north as we speak. Shear wont be a problem as well, especially when the LLJ kicks up around 00z. It may not be super widespread but I'm pretty confident this thing will drop some serious hogs.

 

[Kds86z]

Gonna be lot of storm chaser traffic today, and it’s a Sunday.

 

[Kds86z]

Trey said the V word. Just absolutely classic almost perfect plains setup.

 

[AJS]

Yeah, Treys concerned about this one.

 

[N0mz]

Trey said the V word. Just absolutely classic almost perfect plains setup.

Trey is all over this setup

 

[SmokeEater]

Anyone have any doubts about today, watch Trey's video, he's very bullish on today.

 

[Kds86z]

Hope all chasers look in the mirror for the dominator..

 

[SmokeEater]

Yeah, Treys concerned about this one.

Lol good timing...

 

[Kds86z]

Anyone have any doubts about today, watch Trey's video, he's very bullish on today.

Yessir. Still watching his analysis .

 

[Kds86z]

Sorry if posted.

Just wow .. tomorrow looks more messy but look forward to his analysis.

 

[SmokeEater]

Also, 15% hatched extends into Wichita now, population under the highest risk just went wayyy up.

 

[tornado examiner]

Grungy high precip cells that occlude quickly no?
Is that not what’s gonna happen today?

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Hope all chasers look in the mirror for the dominator..

Dominator crew in hot pursuit

 

[N0mz]

I would figure how today plays out will affect tomorrow's setup. I'm not gonna bother finely forecasting tomorrow at this point