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Severe Weather Threat May 17-19, 2025

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Mesoscale Discussion 0840
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Areas affected...much of northern Texas and southern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon

Valid 171910Z - 171945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will rapidly form over northwest Texas and spread
into southern Oklahoma and across much of North Texas. Very large
damaging hail is expected, along with corridors of wind damage.

DISCUSSION...Warm front continues to move northward into
south-central OK, with a very moist and unstable air mass developing
to the south. Meanwhile, a dryline arcs from near CDS into
west-central TX.

Visible imagery show rapid TCU near SPS and extending southward
toward BWD. Extreme instability is already in place with MLCAPE
approaching 5000 J/kg. Meanwhile, hodographs are elongated with
nearly 60 kt effective deep-layer shear.

Storms will develop soon and spread primarily eastward. Both
supercells and bows are possible. Splitting cells may move
northeastward across much of southern OK as well. The extreme
instability coupled with steep midlevel lapse rates and favorable
shear will support significant damaging hail and wind.
 
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