Severe Weather Threat May 17-19, 2025

[Jbop]

The guy from Max Velocity believes tomorrows tornado 10% sig threat could increase. Guessing he's looking at 15% sig

 

[AJS]

I think thankfully the tornado threat won’t be as extreme today. Based on the models i’ve looked at, looks like it’ll be more geared toward damaging winds/large hail.

 

[Kds86z]

I think thankfully the tornado threat won’t be as extreme today. Based on the models i’ve looked at, looks like it’ll be more geared toward damaging winds/large hail.

Yeah dude today looks the less ominous of next 4..

 

[Ledian]

I already ain't lookin' forward to Tuesday

 

[rushdude]

I think thankfully the tornado threat won’t be as extreme today. Based on the models i’ve looked at, looks like it’ll be more geared toward damaging winds/large hail.

Hail still no fun. My mom's at a funeral today for a friend's husband today and I don't know when she might get home

 

[AJS]

Hail still no fun. My mom's at a funeral today for a friend's husband today and I don't know when she might get home

So sorry for her friends loss. I really hope she stays safe out of any weather danger.

 

[SamB01]

A bit out of nowhere, but isn't there a bit of rotation all the way up north here in Canada, southern QC, near Saint-Hyatinthe and La Présentation?

 

[rushdude]

So sorry for her friends loss. I really hope she stays safe out of any weather danger.

Thank you.
Also me, her, and granddad got weekly church service later today, but we may have to catch it online if weather get rough.

In meantime, saw this sounding on Twitter:

 

[AJS]

Thank you.
Also me, her, and granddad got weekly church service later today, but we may have to catch it online if weather get rough.

In meantime, saw this sounding on Twitter:

Wonder if they’ll upgrade to a 10% for tornadoes.

 

[Clancy]

A bit out of nowhere, but isn't there a bit of rotation all the way up north here in Canada, southern QC, near Saint-Hyatinthe and La Présentation?

Certainly looks like it.

 

[US_Highway15]

Wonder if they’ll upgrade to a 10% for tornadoes.

Ehh, that sounding doesn't really impress me enough to where I believe a 10% upgrade is warranted. LCL's are just under 1000 which doesn't really scream an upgradeable tornado theat. If it was around 800, I think a consoderation would be warranted.

Not to mention, the hodograph doesn't really scream a 10% tornado upgrade.

 

[JPWX]

Going back thru SPC event list, this is the first Day 4 30% "Enhanced" in May for North MS since SPC redid the whole Day 4-8 Outlook scheme.

 

[Kds86z]

Tornado probs increased into Ok..

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Monday and specifically Tuesday is looking like one of “those” days in the plains. Classic plains setup, exponential due points in the 70s. A bowling ball of a low. A very defined dry line. And huge cape. Seems like a thread is necessary because this is looking nasty.

Edit: Gonna also add Saturday and Sunday here too. Since it’s all the same system. (Not trying to cause confusion!) Saturday is indeed looking like the day where this is gonna come in. Haven’t checked the models for these days yet. I did see the SPC didn’t have an outlook for these two days. The potential is there however, gonna be more the lower end days it seems.

Tuesday is a mid south Dixie setup.

 

[Bevo]

Thank you.
Also me, her, and granddad got weekly church service later today, but we may have to catch it online if weather get rough.

In meantime, saw this sounding on Twitter:

Even if the tornado threat is not as large today as the coming days, the potential for 2"+ hail over major metro areas could still be a doozy. Insurance is already very expensive for this area and an upper significant hail event would just spike it further.

 

[Kds86z]

Tuesday is a mid south Dixie setup.

Golly i thought they were done..

 

[US_Highway15]

 

[andyhb]

Which was over almost the exact same areas.

 

[US_Highway15]

Saw this sounding on Twitter. This is near Kiowa KS around 7 PM CT *tomorrow*

 

[Jbop]

Wonder if they’ll upgrade to a 10% for tornadoes.

Still looks more of a hail/high-wind event with low tornado threat.