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Severe Weather Threat May 17-19, 2025

Brice W

Brice W

Member
Messages
627
Location
Virginia
Monday and specifically Tuesday is looking like one of “those” days in the plains. Classic plains setup, exponential due points in the 70s. A bowling ball of a low. A very defined dry line. And huge cape. Seems like a thread is necessary because this is looking nasty.
 
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Without getting into further details since models are still shifting quite a bit run to run, "Houston, we have a problem".

Also think 5/17-18 (Saturday and especially Sunday should be added to this). This may end up needing to be two separate threads actually even though this is technically one system.
 
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CIPS guidance properly centered on a huge chunk of the lower Plains, Midsouth, Southeast into the Ohio Valley for this time frame, specifically the later portion, May 20-21. Strong probabilities, including for tornadoes.
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I really try not to call every event “historic, dangerous” ect ect because that phrasing is way overused but I do think this his a chance to be an multi day outbreak sequence across traditional tornado alley like we haven’t seen in quite a while. I think Saturday could be a sneaky day with upper level dynamics arriving around late evening, and Sunday and Monday have the potential to be higher floor and lower ceiling type days (relative to a historic outbreak) with Tuesday being the day that could be either low floor or extremely high ceiling type day
 
Just now starting to look past this current event going on. The 20th. Definitely could cause some issues with that zonal flow for the traditional Dixie Alley.

Wow just looking at the EURO as well, That's impressive a bit different of a look but impressive nonetheless. Yikes!
 
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UncleJuJu98 said:
Just now starting to look past this current event going on. The 20th. Definitely could cause some issues with that zonal flow for the traditional Dixie Alley.

Wow just looking at the EURO as well, That's impressive a bit different of a look but impressive nonetheless. Yikes!
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Looks to be even more robust n potent than this system be honest …. Mid south and parts Dixie cross heirs thus far
 
TheSuckZone said:
Maybe that's the % of at least 1 report meeting severe criteria? That would be my guess but I'm not positive on that.
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I've watched that model for a while and when you get to the D1-3 range, it often seems to inflate the values way more than they should. Seeing 60% splotches even on fairly marginal days happens - it's an all-hazards risk indicator, so it's trying to display its level of confidence. That it's synched up with SPC colors I think can kinda throw people off, but it's not trying to accomplish the same thing as SPC probs necessarily.
 
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