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Severe Weather Threat May 16-18, 2026

ThatGuy;P said:
While there’s still a decent bit of model disagreement, the day 3 discussion does mention the possibility for higher probabilities due to large hail, which would mean a moderate risk if added in the next day 3
Click to expand...
Looks like it's for hail and tornadoes if I'm reading it right

Strong to intense tornadoes will be possible across central Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. This in combination with potential for very large hail may warrant higher
probabilities as mesoscale details become clearer.
 
Latest day 3
..CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA/NORTHWEST MO

UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
AND COLD FRONT. THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY FREE FROM CONVECTIVE
CONTAMINATION FROM ANY CONTINUING CONVECTION FROM LATE IN THE DAY
2/SUNDAY PERIOD. STRONG HEATING AND VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION. SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES
ARE EXPECTED, WITH BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT, WHILE
ALSO INCREASING IN SPEED. SOUTHERLY 850-700 MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ALSO
INCREASES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH
CURVATURE AND INCREASING 0-1 KM SRH. ROBUST CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL (2-4
INCH DIAMETER), STRONG TO INTENSE TORNADOES, AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
 
Kds86z said:
Latest day 3
..CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA/NORTHWEST MO

UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE
AND COLD FRONT. THIS AREA SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY FREE FROM CONVECTIVE
CONTAMINATION FROM ANY CONTINUING CONVECTION FROM LATE IN THE DAY
2/SUNDAY PERIOD. STRONG HEATING AND VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION. SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES
ARE EXPECTED, WITH BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT, WHILE
ALSO INCREASING IN SPEED. SOUTHERLY 850-700 MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ALSO
INCREASES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH
CURVATURE AND INCREASING 0-1 KM SRH. ROBUST CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL (2-4
INCH DIAMETER), STRONG TO INTENSE TORNADOES, AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
Click to expand...
No mention of higher probabilities
 


* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 440 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
 
Storm near Edson, KS needs tornado warning
 
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