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Severe Weather Threat May 16-18, 2026

ColdFront said:
That’s fine, but this thread is pretty much dead and you just cross posted something that had already been posted multiple times.

There is no rule against it, I agree, but this is TalkWeather forum, and not “Talk WxTwitter”
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The cross post wasn't from the same twitter source, it just showed a forecast map from different users (From the explanation of the poster that called me out).

I try not to double post a post that was already posted, however, I didn't know I needed to be looking out for if someone showed a map of a forecast and the other persons twitter post had something similar.
 
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Weatherguyx said:
This Monday's forecast from the SPC is already showing a Cig2. I'm guessing that will be for tornadoes.
Anyone think this will turn moderate by Monday?
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Pretty dependent on how the models trend through that timeframe. 2026 has had a nasty history of what seemed to be pretty significant events downtrending in the days leading up to them. However, if the models give the SPC enough confidence to issue a moderate, it probably will happen. They've already been somewhat bullish on this threat so far.
 
Today: probs been expanded.

A FEW TORNADOES ALSO APPEAR
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS. THIS
POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG/NEAR THE FRONT WHERE BACKED
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE 0-1 KM SRH.


 
Hmm let’s see, a north/south oriented dry line with sub 10degree dew points on one side and 70+ dew points on the other, in the span of 2 miles, with surface converge this strong.
Then a forcing mechanism that’s literally almost super-positioned right over it, and yet, no convective initiation.
Gotta love the NAM.
1778946117748.png1778946354356.png
 
Weatherguyx said:
I'm not very familiar with the Torcon , but it looks like he went with a 5 here.

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TorCon was developed by Dr. Greg Forbes back in like 2009 (just looked up the exact year) and is meant to show the likelihood of a tornado within 50 miles of a given point rather than 25 miles like the SPC does.

It’s been a while since I’ve seen the Weather Channel do this. It seemed like they moved towards exclusively using the SPC criteria in their products for the past couple of seasons, but maybe they had continued using it and I just missed it.
 
TornadoFan said:
Well we got a 15% tornado risk for tomorrow according to the latest SPC update.
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WITH TIME, ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER EAST
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NE AND SOUTHEAST SD
NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND ON THE NOSE OF THE DRY SLOT AS A SUBTLE
LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVERSPREADS THE REGION. WHILE SOME MORNING
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS COULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHEAST AND ALLOW FOR
CLEARING. AS A RESULT,STRONGER HEATING OF THE MOISTENING AIRMASS
WILL RESULT IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONG DESTABILIZATION (MLCAPE
2500-3500 J/KG). FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUPERCELL WIND
PROFILES, WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR GREATER THAN 40 KT ACROSS THE REGION.
BACKED LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, VEERING WITH HEIGHT,
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SRH AND FAVORABLY CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. WHILE THE CORRIDOR FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
WILL BE NARROW, PARTLY DUE TO CAPPING AND MODEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
AND PARTLY DUE TO THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT RESULTING IN UPSCALE
GROWTH, THE EXPECTATION IS FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG TORNADOES AND LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL ACROSS NORTHEAST
NE/FAR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA.
 
IMG_4405.jpg
 
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