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Severe Weather Threat May 16-18, 2026

PLAINS AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY, STRONG SURFACE HEATING
IS FORECAST. SOME MODELS SUGGEST MLCAPE COULD PEAK IN THE 3000 TO
4000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION, A BROAD 40 TO 50 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS, COMBINE
 
Pretty stark differences between the GFS and the ECMWF on recent runs. The GFS generally has a more progressive (typical for that model) and more negatively tilted (more favorable for severe weather) solution.

Look at the 500mb pattern for 00Z Tuesday (7 PM CDT Monday) on the 12Z GFS that just came out:

Screenshot 2026-05-14 113026.png

...vs the 0Z Euro (12Z not out yet):

Screenshot 2026-05-14 113151.png

This would have big implications on whether I'm able to chase Monday. The Euro actually still has the cold front west of me on Tuesday evening (0Z Wednesday) while the GFS has it shoved off into Indiana/Ohio!
 
Latest day 3:

CENTRAL PLAINS

A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY BECOME APPARENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE AFTERNOON IN PROXIMITY TO THE
SURFACE LOW AND ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHERE MLCAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY
EXCEED 2000 J/KG. ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS DEPICTED BY MOST FORECAST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND COULD
POSE A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. WITH TIME, UPSCALE
GROWTH AND AN INCREASING SEVERE WIND THREAT IS ANTICIPATED AS STORMS
PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. RECENT GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE MOST VOLATILE CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT FROM CENTRAL KS NORTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHWEST KS/CENTRAL
NE. SIMILARLY, LONG-RANGE CAM GUIDANCE ALSO DEPICTS THE BEST
CONVECTIVE SIGNAL ACROSS THIS REGION. SEVERE PROBABILITIES WERE
ADJUSTED NORTHWARD TO REFLECT THIS TREND.
 
Cyclonic Paracosm said:
View attachment 52820
Omaha AFD is uhm something.....
Click to expand...

That AFD is hall-of-fame worthy (not just the severe threat aspect, but the level of care and detail with which the whole thing is written). Should be in all the NOAA training manuals as the standard to meet.
 
Cyclonic Paracosm said:
View attachment 52820
Omaha AFD is uhm something.....
Click to expand...
Meanwhile NWS Des Moines is a lot more chill, and talks more about the flash flooding risk.

The storms Saturday evening will move away with details in the
forecast become fuzzy into early next week as successive convective
events compound uncertainty and model consensus diverges. It does
look like a mesoscale convective system (MCS) develops somewhere
upstream of Iowa Saturday night and may move across some portion of
the state late Saturday night into Sunday morning. After any storms
with the MCS move out Sunday morning, it looks like we could stay
capped through much of the day with warm and windy conditions, but
this will depend on where the MCS tracks and any boundaries or
convective debris left behind. Storms may develop in the LLJ over
Iowa Sunday night, but a higher risk of severe storms and locally
heavy rainfall may develop Monday afternoon and evening as low
pressure and stronger forcing moves over Iowa. However, the ECMWF
and CMC are slower than the GFS and this is also shown in the
ensemble 500mb data as well. This could have storm potential linger
into Tuesday. After the boundary does push through the state,
whether Monday night or sometime Tuesday, cooler and drier air will
move into the state along with less stormy conditions.
Click to expand...
 
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