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Severe Weather Threat May 16-18, 2026

Brice W

Brice W

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5/16-5/18 timeframe definitely has my attention. The globals continue to show a broad warm sector with quality Gulf moisture return, a strengthening southwest flow regime aloft, and a fairly expansive instability axis from the southern Plains into parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes.


IMG_7315.jpeg


At this range I’m not really focused on specifics or trying to pinpoint a “big day” yet because the details will shift a lot, especially regarding storm mode and trough evolution. But this does not look like one of those quick one-day conditional setups. The overall pattern looks supportive of a potentially active multi-day severe weather stretch.


IMG_7317.jpeg


A lot will still depend on timing, convective evolution, and how the trough ejects, but there’s definitely enough showing up already to keep an eye on this period going forward.

IMG_7316.jpeg
 
CSU is very interested in D6, popping a large sig-severe contour and a probabalistic bullseye over parts of Wisconsin.
1778681331267.png1778681362733.png
 
Clancy said:
CSU is very interested in D6, popping a large sig-severe contour and a probabalistic bullseye over parts of Wisconsin.
View attachment 52795View attachment 52796
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Of course.

Well, something to keep an eye on over the next few days. And as seems to be my luck, it's coinciding with days I'm planning to travel. At least I can be more flexible this time.
 
notsoencrypted said:
Of course.

Well, something to keep an eye on over the next few days. And as seems to be my luck, it's coinciding with days I'm planning to travel. At least I can be more flexible this time.
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Stay safe out there please! Just say up to date on the forecast, and avoid those overpasses.
 
Central Ohio Wx said:
What is it with Wisconsin setups this year?? I cannot remember a single year ever where this many setups were focused in that one region.
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The ironic thing is a lot of them have underperformed specifically in the parts of the state that were expected to have the greatest risk. For example on Friday, April 17 the 10%+CIG2 within the state borders was essentially void of reports. The storms of the day tracked just south (producing the Lena and Harrison-Rockton, IL tornadoes) and just north, the EF3 in Buffalo County.

I didn't even chase that day, expecting hard to see HP modes (which was generally true except of course for when the Rockton tornado popped out of the rain in rather spectacular fashion) and not really feeling it after nearly wrecking my chase vehicle hydroplaning on April 14 (again, HP modes), fresh after my success in Minnesota the previous day and the literal "whirlwind" of a tour with Trey et al before that.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
The ironic thing is a lot of them have underperformed specifically in the parts of the state that were expected to have the greatest risk. For example on Friday, April 17 the 10%+CIG2 within the state borders was essentially void of reports. The storms of the day tracked just south (producing the Lena and Harrison-Rockton, IL tornadoes) and just north, the EF3 in Buffalo County.

I didn't even chase that day, expecting hard to see HP modes (which was generally true except of course for when the Rockton tornado popped out of the rain in rather spectacular fashion) and not really feeling it after nearly wrecking my chase vehicle hydroplaning on April 14 (again, HP modes), fresh after my success in Minnesota the previous day and the literal "whirlwind" of a tour with Trey et al before that.
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I think there were two EF3s in north WI IIRC, one on the border of the state and one further inland. The Minnesota tornado was also a surprise that day.
 
New days 4-8: Sunday and Monday both have a 30% orange blob.
Sunday:
1778754917282.png
Mentions a "severe weather outbreak" being "possible from the afternoon into the evening into the early overnight period"
Monday:
1778754985363.png
Again, mentions a severe weather outbreak, primarily mentioning big hail and tornadoes.
 
ThatGuy;P said:
New days 4-8: Sunday and Monday both have a 30% orange blob.
Sunday:
View attachment 52803
Mentions a "severe weather outbreak" being "possible from the afternoon into the evening into the early overnight period"
Monday:
View attachment 52804
Again, mentions a severe weather outbreak, primarily mentioning big hail and tornadoes.
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It may be a Broyles written long range forecast, but even he avoids using the outbreak word in those Day 4-8 outlooks. You only see the SPC forecasts break that out when they’re pretty darn confident in something big potentially coming down the pike.

These two days certainly have my attention.
 
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