Seasons of weather
Member
Been hearing other mets mention models being slightly behind in their timing of convection this season so not surprised the same is beginning to occur today.
Over near Chicago proper and bright skies right now 71/66.
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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat June 6-14
- Thread starter Kds86z
- Start date
Over near Chicago proper and bright skies right now 71/66.
Stormnet is very bullish today with the largest area of coverage and probabilities at 5pm. Keep in mind, this model switches from 12 hour windows to 1 hour when it's within 24 hours so that's why there's no yellow or orange. ASTORP is also quite bullish with the 15% hatched. Nadocast on the other hand isn't seeing it at all. Unhatched 15% and practically nonexistent sigtor chances. My guess is this is a run that has aged poorly, and the chances will rise with following runs that ingest 12z model guidance.
?%3E)
VultureDirge89
Member
And last year there was Fairdealing, Fairview and Fairdale which I think also all happened on the 15th or 16th of the month. I actually really like those sorts of weird coincidences.
jiharris0220
Member
One very important observation is that the hrrr is vastly slower with the forward progression of the MCS than reality.
The hrrr has the system at the border of Illinois by 11am, when it’s actually almost there already, and should cross it by 10am. Good example of cams not taking into account how bowing segments/gust fronts can speed up the overall progression of an MCS.
The system itself is also far more organized and coalesced than what the hrrr has it, and it’s obvious looking at visible that the LLJ is quickly recovering the airmass immediately behind it.
I have my doubts about today, but in terms of air mass recovery, Im not as concerned about that fail mode as I was yesterday.
The hrrr has the system at the border of Illinois by 11am, when it’s actually almost there already, and should cross it by 10am. Good example of cams not taking into account how bowing segments/gust fronts can speed up the overall progression of an MCS.
The system itself is also far more organized and coalesced than what the hrrr has it, and it’s obvious looking at visible that the LLJ is quickly recovering the airmass immediately behind it.
I have my doubts about today, but in terms of air mass recovery, Im not as concerned about that fail mode as I was yesterday.
Biggest things to keep an eye on today will be 250 mb winds, and low level lapse rates. the storms are moving at like 70 mph right now, so that's a very bullish sign. Once again, storms are happening in the exact place where cut weather balloons launches would help the most.
- Thread starter
- #266
Kds86z
Member
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
One of my fav streamers is saying if the MCS survives to Rockford, the day is slightly cooked but given the faster progression, I don't see this being a issue. Northward advancement of the warm sector may be pretty stunted but regardless, it should get up there eventually.
All other factors aside, this is probably one of the best looking troughs we've seen all year. My prediction: I think this is going to be the biggest severe weather day of the year.
DanLarsen34
Member
A trough actually affecting the location area for the first time all year. lol.
This is a favorable and impressive look for any time of the year, let alone in mid-June.
- Thread starter
- #270
Kds86z
Member
Check DMs @DanLarsen34
VultureDirge89
Member
I was actually just about to say that it's one of the best that I can remember since last May. Today definitely has the potential for a solid event. Now that being said I'm still feeling a bit cautious given this year's track record of events downtrending just hours beforehand (getting a 2021 vibe this year if I'm honest).
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Last year, we got to 200 pages.
Now, we're going for 15. We can do this!
Now, we're going for 15. We can do this!
jiharris0220
Member
You know this year has been @ss when the threads are 2017 post revival TalkWeather levels of quiet.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
For real though. Tornado driven moderate and there's like 6 users minimum in the threads commenting
warneagle
Member
given the track-record of this year's tornado-driven moderates I can understand why people aren't champing at the bit
I can only imagine how bad 2017 was. This year has had 3 moderate risks significantly underperform (so far...). 2017 had that but instead of Moderate they were HIGH.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Also a fair point but you would expect traction still
jiharris0220
Member
2017 was a little luke warm, but TalkWeather as a whole in the first 3 years really didn’t have a lot of activity because it was recovering from its original version being completely wiped in 2015.
It really only began to take off again when the 2020 Easter outbreak occurred.
Seasons of weather
Member
Haha I would post more if I had better meteorological knowledge. Best I can offer is on the ground reporting today lol
Same here. I just enjoy being a fly on the wall and seeing what’s happening, what people think, and any damage/tornado photos too