Severe Weather Threat June 6-11

[Kds86z]

..OZARKS

A WEAK TROUGH/LOW OVER THE CENTRAL US WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
FROM OK INTO IA CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS
MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF 30-40 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
WINDS AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL LIE ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU THIS
AFTERNOON. THE 12 UTC SPRINGFIELD, MO RAOB SAMPLED THIS BELT OF
STRONGER FLOW WITH 80-KT AT 200 MB. HEATING OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
WITH SOME MINOR ENLARGEMENT OF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS MAY RESULT A FEW
WEAK SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING COINCIDENT WITH PEAK HEATING. A COUPLE
OF BRIEF TORNADOES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[RFD66]

Massive flooding across Nothern Madison and Limestone counties attm.

 

[Kds86z]

And tornado warnings have started.

 

[Kds86z]

New day 3 has gotten bit stronger worded

FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, WITH A RAPID INCREASE IN
DEWPOINTS AND INSTABILITY. THERE APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL FAILURE MODE
FOR THE TRIPLE POINT/WARM FRONT, WITH LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION
FORECAST AHEAD OF IT, AND A DRY AIR MASS NORTH OF IT WITH SOME
CAPPING. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY WITH
40-50 KT OUT OF THE DUE SOUTH AT 850 MB. ALL THIS WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE A DYNAMIC AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SCENARIO FOR PARTS OF
NORTH DAKOTA, AND/OR PERHAPS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN
BORDER. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT, AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES
NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW MAY CONDITIONALLY FAVOR
STRONGER TORNADOES. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE SETUP IS THREE DAYS OUT, WILL
MAINTAIN ENHANCED RISK WITH CIG1 DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.

OTHERWISE, THE ENTIRE WARM SECTOR EXTENDING INTO SD AND WESTERN MN
WILL ALSO BE CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS AND EVENTUAL BOWING STRUCTURES
WITH TORNADOES, VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

Sorry was behind in chat didn’t see that kds86z posted the convective chronicles video for the upcoming stretch of severe weather

 

[eep]

Looks like we're seeing a derecho forecast for today, interestingly.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[jiharris0220]

With vertical instability of this caliber underneath an inversion layer like this, you can legitimately go from a small puff of cumulus humulus to a full mature supercell over a 100miles long in the span of 30minutes.
Obviously this is the 3km NAM here and over 2days out. Nebraska really has a low chance of seeing convection even with this environment because the forcing mechanism will be too far north.