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Severe Weather Threat June 5-9

Looks like in the latest update the SPC was looking at high tornado probs

confidence in this scenario is too low for the introduction of higher tornado probabilities at this time.


Plus

In either scenario, gust magnitudes may potentially reaching 80-100 mph, hence the maintenance of a Category
4/Moderate Risk
 
And this is all happening on a Sunday evening, when me and my parents are more concerned about getting trash and recycling out to the curb.

At least there's plenty of time to prepare but not sure of any failure modes :(

EDIT:
Dayum, what a nasty bunch!
 
Last edited:
Main focus currently is rightly on the significant wind thread today, but could have more storms in the Southeast tomorrow. SPC mentions confidence issues, but that the wind threat could be more substantial than currently forecast.
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST
TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and isolated severe
hail are possible across the Southeast into the Upper Ohio Valley on
Monday into Monday evening.

...Southeast...
Below-average confidence exists for this forecast with large spread
across D2 guidance in the handling of an early-morning MCS and
attendant MCV in the MS vicinity, amid modest background wind fields
outside of the MCV influence. Most guidance indicates convection
should intensify towards midday, along and downstream of the
large-scale outflow as the boundary layer destabilizes across the
Deep South. Some guidance indicates convection may redevelop behind
it and become the primary corridor for damaging winds during the
afternoon. For now, have maintained a broad level 2-SLGT risk for
scattered damaging winds to the South Atlantic Coast.

...Upper OH Valley...
A belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies ahead of an upper Great
Lakes vertically stacked cyclone should generally remain along to
the cool side of a weak cold front shifting east. Most guidance has
trended up with the degree of boundary-layer heating ahead of the
front, which will be required to boost buoyancy amid marginal
mid-level lapse rates. A corridor of primarily scattered damaging
winds, along with a tornado and isolated severe hail, may develop
amid modest MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg. With a confined buoyancy plume,
convection should weaken as it spreads towards the northern
Appalachians on Monday evening.

...NM/TX...
An intense and large MCS on Sunday should drive a composite
outflow/cold front into central/south TX, with a meridional arc over
central to western NM. Scattered to numerous afternoon storms will
probably remain tied to the higher terrain of northern/central NM
with an isolated severe hail/wind threat amid marginal deep-layer
shear. Isolated storms are also possible near the front from the
southern Trans-Pecos through southeast TX with a severe hail/wind
threat. Isolated elevated convection may form with weak low-level
warm theta-e advection north of the front on Monday evening/night.
Sufficient effective bulk shear and elevated buoyancy may exist for
a few storms capable of severe hail.

..Grams.. 06/08/2025
Click to expand...
1749401281046.png
 
Surprise Tornado Warning in NE VA.
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
105 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

VAC179-081715-
/O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0024.000000T0000Z-250608T1715Z/
Stafford VA-
105 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN STAFFORD COUNTY...

At 104 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Stafford, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, flying
debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter.
Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. Mobile
homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
Stafford around 110 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Ramoth, Garrisonville, Widewater, Aquia, Arkendale, and Roseville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3841 7748 3847 7751 3853 7738 3852 7737
3850 7731 3843 7731 3842 7738
TIME...MOT...LOC 1704Z 239DEG 14KT 3846 7745

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

$$

EST
Click to expand...
 
86 lightning shots saved so far from last night off GoPro
 
We'll see what they end up going with, but today looks like one of those rare scenarios tailor-made for SPC to issue a PDS severe thunderstorm watch. Fairly high confidence in widespread, significant damaging winds, but enough factors working against a tornado threat (Almost instant outflow-dominance, [very] high LCL, and weak low-level shear [on soundings that aren't ultra-contaminated like the one just posted as I was typing this]) that a tornado watch probably isn't warranted.
 
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