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Severe Weather Threat June 5-9

Kds86z said:
This is already more tornado activity then that other day was supposed to be (Friday).

I am shocked given the high LCL forecasted etc.
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High LCL by itself absolutely isn’t unfavorable for tornadoes, high LCL just lowers the chances of wedge shaped tornadoes obviously since that requires a tornado to be wider than it is tall.

What actually makes an environment unfavorable for tornadoes is the LFC and LCL being too separated from each other, in which in this case around the northern TX panhandle, they’re only separated 200-300meters.
 
Upscale growth is indeed occurring quickly, the fact that theres hardly any inversion layer, plus mass cold pooling via downdraft/outflow dominate mode and strong forcing mechanism (the short wave to the west located in NM/AZ) is causing convection to unzip along the cold front and surface boundary.
1749415021315.png
Dry line is yet to convect as the forcing mechanism hasn’t arrived just yet (should occur around 7pm.) This has some serious derecho potential, the zonal winds in the vertical profile and the subtropical jet streak over the OWS screams long lived straight line wind event.

Won’t be surprised if I loose power once the MCS makes its way here, hopefully nothing worse than that.
 
jiharris0220 said:
High LCL by itself absolutely isn’t unfavorable for tornadoes, high LCL just lowers the chances of wedge shaped tornadoes obviously since that requires a tornado to be wider than it is tall.

What actually makes an environment unfavorable for tornadoes is the LFC and LCL being too separated from each other, in which in this case around the northern TX panhandle, they’re only separated 200-300meters.
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I prefer taller than wider tornadoes hehe. Wedges not my fav shape.
 
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 396
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
400 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2025

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

..THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SCATTERED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 105
MPH LIKELY
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY

SUMMARY...INCREASING INTENSE SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THIS WILL INCLUDE INITIAL
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL WITH A TORNADO RISK, BUT A
PROMINENT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD EVOLVE THIS
EVENING.
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1749416817348.png

1749416838294.png
 
Last PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued on May 19th, 2024.

A total of 44 PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watches have been issued from 2000 thru 2024.
 
cincywx said:
View attachment 43882

View attachment 43883
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Honestly, the tornado probability number is quite a bit higher than I was expecting. With that I probably would have gone with a tornado watch with text that still emphasized the wind hazard.

5 inch hail also mentioned as a possibility, tops to 60,000'. Most watches, even on high-end days, specify 50,000'.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Honestly, the tornado probability number is quite a bit higher than I was expecting. With that I probably would have gone with a tornado watch with text that still emphasized the wind hazard.

5 inch hail also mentioned as a possibility, tops to 60,000'. Most watches, even on high-end days, specify 50,000'.
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yeah going PDS SVR with 60/20 tornado probs doesn't make sense to me. like I get that you want to emphasize the damaging wind threat but that's a pretty substantial tornado threat too.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Honestly, the tornado probability number is quite a bit higher than I was expecting. With that I probably would have gone with a tornado watch with text that still emphasized the wind hazard.

5 inch hail also mentioned as a possibility, tops to 60,000'. Most watches, even on high-end days, specify 50,000'.
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It's definitely an interesting situation for the folks in Norman. I don't envy it ... do you emphasize the possible tornado risk with a tornado watch (and mention the 105mph gusts in the watch info text), or do you emphasize the possible 105mph straight line gusts with a PDS t-storm watch (and mention tornadoes in the watch info text)? Feels like one of the two threats could slip between the cracks of the general public's awareness just by the mere fact that most don't even know about watch information text. Sitting here for a bit thinking about it, I'm not sure there is a wrong answer.
 
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