Kds86z
Member
Confidence is increasing in a higher end severe threat this weekend. Wording has gotten stronger on the new SPC day 3.
In addition, the Midwest could see severe weather Sunday and I expect that to be on the next extended.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS VICINITY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. LARGE
TO VERY-LARGE HAIL, SEVERE WINDS (SOME 75+ MPH), AND TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE.
..CENTRAL PLAINS
MODEST SHORTWAVE RIDGING WITHIN THE PLAINS WILL BREAK DOWN AS A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
DIVIDE, A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER
WILL AID MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTH OF A STALLED
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. WITH
MID/UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS REACHING EASTERN COLORADO/WYOMING,
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND PERHAPS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 50 KT WILL SUPPORT
INITIAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LARGE/VERY-LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS, PARTICULARLY AS THEY
INTERACT WITH RICHER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
(BACKING TO NEAR EASTERLY ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY) WILL ALSO
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER, SHOULD
STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE INTO THE EVENING, STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WINDS/LARGER HODOGRAPHS WOULD SUPPORT A GREATER TORNADO THREAT AND
POTENTIALLY A STRONGER TORNADO. WITH TIME, MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT SOME UPSCALE GROWTH WILL OCCUR. THIS APPEARS MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS THIS OCCURS, A MORE
ORGANIZED WIND THREAT WOULD DEVELOP AND WIND GUSTS OF 75+ MPH WOULD
BECOME MORE PROBABLE. AS CONFIDENCE IN THE CORRIDOR OF A POTENTIAL
MCS TRACK INCREASES, HIGHER PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
In addition, the Midwest could see severe weather Sunday and I expect that to be on the next extended.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS VICINITY FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. LARGE
TO VERY-LARGE HAIL, SEVERE WINDS (SOME 75+ MPH), AND TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE.
..CENTRAL PLAINS
MODEST SHORTWAVE RIDGING WITHIN THE PLAINS WILL BREAK DOWN AS A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
DIVIDE, A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER
WILL AID MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTH OF A STALLED
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. WITH
MID/UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS REACHING EASTERN COLORADO/WYOMING,
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND PERHAPS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AS WELL. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 50 KT WILL SUPPORT
INITIAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LARGE/VERY-LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS, PARTICULARLY AS THEY
INTERACT WITH RICHER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
(BACKING TO NEAR EASTERLY ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY) WILL ALSO
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER, SHOULD
STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE INTO THE EVENING, STRONG LOW-LEVEL
WINDS/LARGER HODOGRAPHS WOULD SUPPORT A GREATER TORNADO THREAT AND
POTENTIALLY A STRONGER TORNADO. WITH TIME, MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT SOME UPSCALE GROWTH WILL OCCUR. THIS APPEARS MOST
LIKELY TO OCCUR NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. AS THIS OCCURS, A MORE
ORGANIZED WIND THREAT WOULD DEVELOP AND WIND GUSTS OF 75+ MPH WOULD
BECOME MORE PROBABLE. AS CONFIDENCE IN THE CORRIDOR OF A POTENTIAL
MCS TRACK INCREASES, HIGHER PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
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