Severe WX Severe Weather Threat June 19-29

[EastTexasWx]

might be 3 areas with 2 very close to each other.
View attachment 53994

somthing is really trying.

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Yea that spun up really fast I think were gonna see something soon

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

It almost looks like it wants to split.

 

[eep]

Struggling with mergers for a bit. Might take a bit for it to clean itself up.

 

[TornadoFan]

Low level lapse rates might end up causing these storms to struggle.

 

[eep]

Low level lapse rates might end up causing these storms to struggle.

Maybe the smaller ones, but I think the Fargo one is just dealing with some mergers.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Looks like it failed to merge and now the storm to the south is choking off it's inflow. This one is probably gonna struggle for a while and the window wasn't very big to begin with.

 

[eep]

Connor reported a tor OTG with the Fargo Cell. Funnel coming down.

EDIT: Seems like a weak touchdown, think it's gearing up for more though.

 

[TornadoFan]

Storm NE of the MVX radar just went tornado warned. Interesting.

 

[TornadoFan]

Max has a clip of the brief touchdown.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

I'm still not convinced that Southern cell isn't going to repeatedly choke off the Fargo storm's inflow. Low level SRH is very impressive though, so anything can happen I suppose.

 

[Kds86z]

Minnesota.

 

[eep]

I'm still not convinced that Southern cell isn't going to repeatedly choke off the Fargo storm's inflow. Low level SRH is very impressive though, so anything can happen I suppose.


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I doubt it, think it'll get absorbed into the hook.

 

[TornadoFan]

Pretty structure on it though.

 

[Beachwalker]

What are we missing? Shear (again)? Little too warm in the lower levels?

 

[eep]

What are we missing? Shear (again)? Little too warm in the lower levels?

Overconvection, it has been ramping up over the last hour though.

 

[Beachwalker]

I doubt it, think it'll get absorbed into the hook.

Last few scans look like it just might merge

 

[eep]

I almost wonder if the one south of it will be the one to do it.

 

[eep]

Mckinney has a crazy view of a feeder band getting rushed into the cell.

 

[jiharris0220]

Overconvection, it has been ramping up over the last hour though.

Not at all.
It’s very poor LLLR that’s silencing the tornado threat, primarily caused by the inversion layer.
Usually, these wouldn’t be a problem if there’s enough forcing and a saturated vertical profile, but in a heavily capped environment, it’s a fatal failure mode for tornadogenesis.
The storm motion vectors being north-north east for right movers definitely isn’t helping at all in this case either.
These supercells are moving north at 40knots, the LLJ they’re in is moving at around 35-40knots, from the frame of reference of these supercells, they are hardly experiencing any low level sheer at all.