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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat June 19-29

Grand Poo Bah said:
I already feel bad about this outburst because idk what the solution is.

Personally, I'm leaning towards banning tweets. There's definitely some great content we'll miss out on by doing it, but there's a few users who are completely ruining it for everyone else. Sacrificing a few, scattered high-value tweets to stop the mountains of slop might be worth it?
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I disagree about banning tweets. As you stated, too much good info comes from them in a nice, tidy package. No different than posting maps, soundings, etc. Where I do agree is we've let this thread lumber on for 11 days and that is too long. Jay has already addressed that, and in the future we probably should start locking threads for a couple of days if they keep getting piled on like this one.
 
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 745 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...SCATTERED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
ALONG A WARM FRONT MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD IN MINNESOTA. STORMS
INTERACTING WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
STRONG TORNADO OR TWO AND LARGE HAIL OF 1-2 INCHES IN DIAMETER.
LATE THIS EVENING SOME UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LINE WILL BE POSSIBLE,
WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR DAMAGING GUSTS OF 60-75 MPH AND A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS.
 
joshoctober16 said:
except for the lowest lapse rates i dont see a single true issue to be honest
View attachment 53986
also VTP is at 124.6 the highest ive ever seen.
however VTP is flawd cause its poorly made and never had a limit on the LR and 3CAPE (CVTP is a fix of that)
View attachment 53987
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Incredibly saturated LLLRs, 700 mb warm nose and a highly subtle surface inversion. We will see what this environment does.
 
The cap is definitely holding right now and with the sun going down there may not be enough new juice to overcome the EML. These dryline storms on the Western border will probably grow upscale very quickly. Not as confident as I was a few hours ago. They do seem to be taking a slightly Eastward turn as the 300 mb jet catches up to them, which could keep them isolated longer.

1782781182328.png
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
The cap is definitely holding right now and with the sun going down there may not be enough new juice to overcome the EML. These dryline storms on the Western border will probably grow upscale very quickly. Not as confident as I was a few hours ago. They do seem to be taking a slightly Eastward turn as the 300 mb jet catches up to them, which could keep them isolated longer.

View attachment 53988
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How a man's opinion can fiercely change in a hour from significant long track tornadoes to upscale and EML slop is game changing
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
How a man's opinion can fiercely change in a hour from significant long track tornadoes to upscale and EML slop is game changing
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The secret is to embrace the crow. mmmmm, yummy yummy crow! lol

Although, the Fargo supercell is renewing my interest. Looks like Brandon Copic is shooting for the core, which is very brave considering it probably has grapefruit sized hail lmao. The amount of forcing required to get that high is insane. There's likely 100-150 mph vertical winds up in there!
 
Grand Poo Bah said:
The secret is to embrace the crow. mmmmm, yummy yummy crow! lol

Although, the Fargo supercell is renewing my interest. Looks like Brandon Copic is shooting for the core, which is very brave considering it probably has grapefruit sized hail lmao. The amount of forcing required to get that high is insane. There's likely 100-150 mph vertical winds up in there!
Click to expand...
Learned from past experience, ask questions if needed
 
Echo tops just collapsed on the southern cells. It appears to be undergoing a potentially productive merger and developing a hook. It's got quite a bit of space to work if it can absorb this last blip too. We'll see.

1782782502156.png1782782488835.png
 
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