Severe WX Severe Weather Threat June 19-28

[Kds86z]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Monday could be a very volatile day near the warm front/triple point in ND/MN, especially if the moisture/LLJ hangs back west underneath the stronger flow aloft. One of those crazy parameter space days that actually may have a chance to initiate given the amplitude of the trough.

StormNet notably uptrended in its most recent run.

I took Monday off initially when it looked like that set up would happen on Sunday. I have to be back at work 4AM Tuesday so hoping I can target not much further west/north than Albert Lea.

Edit: Unfortunately soundings looked capped to hell around there. Verbatim only viable target is near the Canadian border where some NAM soundings pop the "PDS TOR." GFS gives some hope with a little extra 500mb wave coming through s-central MN around 0Z Tuesday. At least by then 12-hour heights are neutral rather than rising across the target area as they are at 0Z Monday (7 PM CDT Sunday).

 

[Kds86z]

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
NORTHERN NEBRASKA
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL
1100 PM MDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 90 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 3.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP REGIONALLY, WITH LARGE HAIL AND SOME TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. A PROMINENT DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY ALSO UNFOLD INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.