- Thread starter
- #421
Kds86z
Member
Thank you for posting! I did see this but forgot to.
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Severe WX Severe Weather Threat June 19-25
- Thread starter Kds86z
- Start date
CheeselandSkies
Member
(from yearly thread)
14Z HRRR now introduces a nice southeastward-moving supercell with stout UH from Iowa into Green Counties, WI. Might turn out a bit like the "Independence Day Mothership" of 2022 (the chase where I pulled in behind Vince Waelti and Brandon Copic's Radar Omega/Ryan Hall Y'all-wrapped vehicles).
CheeselandSkies
Member
Found the cherry-picked sounding with just enough SRH coupled with that level of 3CAPE to trip a "TOR" hazard.
- Thread starter
- #424
Kds86z
Member
- Thread starter
- #425
Kds86z
Member
Day 2: possible tornado upgrade to come
WITH STORM MOTIONS LIKELY TO BE ALONG-BOUNDARY. THERE REMAINS STRONG SIGNAL THAT A 40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH FAVORABLE ALONG BOUNDARY STORM MOTIONS WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY RELATIVE TO THE MORE FAVORABLE CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY/LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. THE 5% TORNADO AREA WAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD WITH THIS UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IF MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES OCCURS, HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED. FOR NOW, CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE IN SUPERCELLS
DEVELOPING WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
WITH STORM MOTIONS LIKELY TO BE ALONG-BOUNDARY. THERE REMAINS STRONG SIGNAL THAT A 40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH FAVORABLE ALONG BOUNDARY STORM MOTIONS WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY RELATIVE TO THE MORE FAVORABLE CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY/LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS. THE 5% TORNADO AREA WAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD WITH THIS UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IF MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES OCCURS, HIGHER PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED. FOR NOW, CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE IN SUPERCELLS
DEVELOPING WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
